Early Outlook on NFL Playoff Picture Reveals Surprises and Disappointments
ICARO Media Group
We're just one week into the 2024 NFL regular season, and already there are some intriguing developments in the playoff picture. Using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), we take an early look at which teams are in good shape and which ones have work to do in order to secure a coveted spot in the 14-team postseason field.
Leading the pack with the highest percentage chance to make the playoffs is the Kansas City Chiefs, who pulled off a close victory against the Ravens on opening night. Currently sitting at an impressive 90%, the Chiefs are off to a strong start on their road to Super Bowl LIX. Meanwhile, despite their loss, the Ravens still have a promising chance of making the playoffs among the 0-1 teams with a solid 61%.
However, one team that experienced a significant drop in playoff odds is the Cincinnati Bengals. Entering the season with a strong 66% chance of making the postseason, their Week 1 loss to the Patriots has pushed them down to 46%. Joe Burrow and the Bengals will need to regroup and make some improvements to get back on track.
In a surprising turn of events, the New England Patriots have seen a dramatic increase in their playoff odds. Initially projected with the lowest odds to make the playoffs at just 6%, the Patriots have already climbed to 16%, positioning themselves at 27th overall and 13th in the AFC.
Shifting our focus to the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers are currently leading the conference with an impressive 85% chance of making the playoffs. Their victory over the Jets on Monday night propelled them to the top spot. The Detroit Lions also made a notable jump, increasing their chances from 70% to 78% after defeating the Rams on Sunday night. The Philadelphia Eagles, after a convincing win against the Packers, stand strong at 82%.
In the NFC South, the Atlanta Falcons faced a setback in their playoff aspirations. Going into Week 1 with a 60% chance of making the playoffs and a 34% chance to win the division, their numbers have dropped to 39% and 20%, respectively, following a tough performance against the Steelers. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers both have a greater than 50% chance to secure a playoff spot after strong Week 1 victories.
Unfortunately, it's not all good news for the Carolina Panthers and the New York Giants. Both teams are already facing uphill battles with less than 6% odds to make the playoffs after lackluster performances in Week 1. Bryce Young and Daniel Jones struggled, combining for zero touchdown passes, four interceptions, and nine sacks.
As the season progresses, these playoff projections are subject to change. Teams will need to stay focused, regroup, and make necessary adjustments in order to secure their spot in the postseason. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.