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After a surge of intense activity in early October, the tropical Atlantic has calmed, with two tropical disturbances currently posing minimal threat of developing into named storms. Hurricane Milton is likely to be the last named storm of October. However, with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to bring favorable conditions for cyclone formation in early November, it remains premature to conclude the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

**94L Near the Leeward Islands**

Invest 94L, a disturbance from Cabo Verde in the central Atlantic, is nearing the northern Leeward Islands, moving westward at approximately 20 mph. Despite favorable conditions like light wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), 94L faces challenges due to the very dry air mass it is embedded in, limiting thunderstorm activity. The disturbance’s rapid advance also hampers its ability to align its upper-level and surface centers. Furthermore, the current unfavorable MJO phase favors sinking air over the Atlantic, complicating development.

On Saturday, 94L will encounter significant hurdles: hostile wind shear if it heads west-northwest toward Florida or the mountains of Hispaniola if it moves west-southwest over the Dominican Republic. Current models predict the disturbance will dissipate by Sunday. Nevertheless, 94L may still bring heavy rain showers, with potential for 1-2 inches (25-50 mm) of rainfall across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic from Friday to Saturday.

As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, 94L has a 20% chance of development in the next two days and a 30% chance within the next week.

**Heavy Rainfall Forecast for Belize and Southeast Mexico**

A disturbance within a Central American Gyre, currently about 50 miles off the northeast coast of Honduras, has a slight chance of tropical cyclone development before approaching land this weekend. This system, characterized by disorganized showers and thunderstorms with a central pressure of 1007 millibars, is moving northwest and is expected to come ashore along the Belize or Quintana Roo coast of Mexico by Saturday.

Despite being in a moist atmosphere with sea surface temperatures of 29-30 degrees Celsius (84-86°F), the disturbance will soon encounter strong upper-level winds, limiting its development potential. Ensemble models suggest a low probability of this system becoming a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. However, whether or not it develops, the disturbance is expected to produce torrential rains across southern and eastern Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras, with some areas potentially receiving 15-20 inches of rain, posing risks of mudslides and flash floods.

**North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season**

The North Indian Ocean experiences two cyclone seasons annually: one in May, before the monsoon, and another in October/November, after the monsoon recedes. Tropical cyclones are rare from June to September due to the monsoon’s interference. With the monsoon weakening, the fall cyclone season is likely to intensify, supported by a favorable MJO phase. Multiple models predict a tropical cyclone forming in the eastern Bay of Bengal by Monday, moving northwest or north. The MJO is also expected to enhance typhoon activity in the Western Pacific Ocean next week.

The last major cyclone in the Bay of Bengal was Cyclone Mocha, which struck Myanmar on May 14, 2023. Rated a category 4 storm with winds of 155 mph by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Mocha briefly reached category 5 with 175 mph winds, equating it with Cyclone Fani of 2019 as the strongest recorded North Indian Ocean cyclone. Mocha caused 151 deaths and $2.3 billion in damage, though the death toll may be unreliable due to ongoing conflict in Myanmar following a 2021 military coup.