In Portugal's general election on Sunday, an exit poll indicated that the race was too close to call, with two moderate mainstream parties leading the way and a radical right populist party potentially securing third place. The poll conducted by Portugal's Catholic University and published by public broadcaster RTP predicted that the center-right Democratic Alliance, led by the Social Democratic Party, would receive 29-33% of the vote, while the center-left Socialist Party would gather 25-29%.

The exit poll also revealed a significant surge in support for the populist party Chega (Enough), which may have secured 14-17% of the vote and rose from 7% in the previous election in 2022. This trend aligns with a shift towards the political right observed across the European Union. Fifteen other parties are expected to pick up the remaining votes, with most results anticipated to be announced by 2300 GMT.

For decades, the Social Democrats and Socialists have alternated in power, but they have never faced such a strong challenge from a hard-right party. The Social Democrats' leader, Luis Montenegro, ruled out the possibility of teaming up with Chega during the campaign due to the party's controversial policy proposals that are unpalatable for many Portuguese. However, if Montenegro fails to garner a majority government, he may be forced to consider alliances with other right-of-center parties, potentially elevating Chega as a kingmaker.

Andre Ventura, leader of Chega and a former law professor and television soccer pundit, responded to the exit poll results, highlighting his party's "landmark result" and stating that Chega is ready to be part of a government. Ventura indicated a willingness to drop some of the party's most controversial proposals, such as chemical castration and life prison sentences, to facilitate a possible governing alliance with other right-of-center parties.

Chega's campaign primarily focused on an anti-corruption platform, as graft scandals triggered the early election following the resignation of former Socialist leader and Prime Minister António Costa amid a corruption investigation involving his chief of staff. The discontent among the public, driven by the scandals and issues such as low wages, a high cost of living, a housing crisis, and shortcomings in public healthcare, has been capitalized upon by Chega.

The Social Democrats also faced embarrassment before the campaign due to a graft scandal that led to the resignation of two prominent party officials. Additionally, voters have expressed concerns about living standards as financial pressures continue to mount. An influx of foreign real estate investors and tourists seeking short-term rentals has driven up house prices, especially in major cities like Lisbon, displacing many locals from the market. Furthermore, the Portuguese economy has been struggling, with low wages that barely cover basic living expenses for many citizens.

Pedro Nuno Santos, the 46-year-old Socialist leader and the party's candidate for prime minister, promises change with a vague concept of "a fresh boost." However, he has not distanced himself from senior party members who served in previous governments. On the other hand, Social Democrat leader Luis Montenegro, 51, plans to bring non-party-affiliated figures, whom he refers to as "doers," into his government.

Chega, a relatively new party founded just five years ago, made a breakthrough in 2019 by securing its first seat in Portugal's Parliament. This number jumped to 12 seats in 2022, and polling suggests the party could more than double its seat count in this election. Chega's leader, Andre Ventura, has successfully connected with dissatisfied voters, particularly among young people, through social media and his charismatic campaigning style.

As the official election results are awaited, Portugal faces a potentially transformative political landscape, with a close race between mainstream parties and the rise of a populist party that could have a significant impact on the formation of the next government.