In the latest findings from the Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey, conducted by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS), it has been estimated that there are approximately 317 million blue crabs in the Chesapeake Bay in 2024. This number represents a slight decrease from the previous year's count of 323 million crabs.

While the overall number of blue crabs remains relatively stable, there has been a noticeable decline in the population of spawning age female crabs. In 2023, there were 152 million spawning age female crabs, but that number fell to 133 million in 2024. Despite the decrease, it is important to note that the current count still exceeds the management threshold of 72.5 million crabs, indicating that the female crab population is not currently being overfished.

Adult male crabs also experienced a decline in numbers, dropping from 55 million in 2023 to 46 million in 2024. On the other hand, the survey revealed a positive increase in the number of juvenile crabs in the Chesapeake Bay. After four years of below-average counts, the number of juvenile crabs rose to 138 million in 2024.

The fluctuating blue crab population is affected by various factors, including oceanic conditions, available nursery habitat, predation, and environmental impacts. Lynn Fegley, Director of Maryland DNR Fishing and Boating Services, expressed relief at the increase in juvenile recruitment but emphasized the need to examine the approach moving forward due to the relatively low recruitment numbers in recent years.

To address these concerns, the Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee has planned a new stock assessment for blue crabs, set to begin this summer. This assessment aims to enhance understanding of the species' ecology, improve modeling techniques, and potentially revise the reference points used in management practices. The assessment is expected to be completed and published in March 2026.

Mandy Bromilow, DNR's blue crab program manager, highlighted the importance of reevaluating assumptions and applying new analytical methods to the data, as there has not been a comprehensive reexamination of the factors that contributed to the 2011 stock assessment on blue crabs in the Chesapeake Bay.

While awaiting the results of the stock assessment, the Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee will review the survey findings of this year and provide scientific advice for management. The DNR will collaborate with the state's Blue Crab Industry Advisory Committee to determine management options for 2024 that prioritize the health and sustainability of the Chesapeake Bay blue crab population and its fisheries.

The Winter Dredge Survey, conducted cooperatively by Maryland and Virginia since 1990, involves biologists using dredge equipment to capture, measure, record, and release blue crabs at 1,500 sites in the Chesapeake Bay from December through March. The detailed results can be found on the DNR website, offering a comprehensive view of the blue crab population and aiding conservation efforts in the region.