In the highly anticipated race for California's open Senate seat, Democrats are facing a nail-biting situation as Republican candidate Steve Garvey mounts a late surge, threatening to upend the party's plans. Under California's "jungle primary" system, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election, which could pose challenges for Democrats if their votes get split.

Rep. Adam Schiff has long been the favorite to secure first place, but Garvey's unexpected rise in popularity has shaken up the field. Known for his illustrious baseball career as a former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres first baseman, Garvey now finds himself in the lead, according to a recent Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley poll, with 27% of the vote. Schiff closely follows with 25%, while Rep. Katie Porter sits at 19% and Rep. Barbara Lee at 8%.

To prevent a potentially divisive matchup within their own party come November, allies of Schiff have poured significant financial resources into boosting Garvey's campaign. According to the Washington Post, both Schiff and his supporters have collectively spent at least $11 million on Garvey's campaign, which seems to be yielding results.

Schiff, who emerged as a prominent figure during President Donald Trump's impeachment trial, has positioned himself as a key adversary to the 45th president. Porter, a protege of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, has earned a reputation as a progressive firebrand, aggressively challenging Wall Street executives and other business leaders. While Garvey, a first-time candidate at the age of 75, brings his baseball stardom and a fresh perspective to the race.

However, the Democratic party faces a larger challenge as they grapple with defending 23 Senate seats compared to the Republicans' 11 in what is already one of the most expensive races for the upper chamber in the 2024 election cycle. Diverting more donor funds to California, a reliably blue state, could complicate their overall strategy.

Adding to the complexity is the risk of low voter turnout on Super Tuesday due to the lack of competitiveness in the presidential race for both Republicans and Democrats. This could potentially boost Garvey's chances, as his supporters may be more motivated to cast their votes.

The final outcome of the California Senate race remains uncertain, with the state allowing mail-in voting until March 12th. Nevertheless, with Garvey's surge in popularity and a divided Democratic field, the battle for the top two spots has become increasingly tense. Democrats will need to carefully navigate this contest to secure both general election slots while avoiding any potential splits in their support and resources.