In the world of fantasy football, it's crucial to avoid busts and make strategic picks that will lead to success. With the new season approaching, there are two players that stand out as high risks: Jordan Love and Nick Chubb. Let's delve into why these players should be approached with caution and explore some rules to help steer clear of potential busts.

The first player that raises eyebrows is Jordan Love. Currently, Love's average draft position (ADP) in CBS PPR rankings is inside the top 60 and steadily climbing. Surprisingly, he's being drafted ahead of more established quarterbacks such as Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams. The question arises - why take a chance on Love when there are other players with higher upside? Unless a quarterback has the potential to throw for 5,000 yards or run for 500, it may be wise to avoid drafting them in the first five rounds. This rule applies not only to Love but also to players like C.J. Stroud.

Moving on, the other player causing concern is Nick Chubb. Despite his previous success, Chubb's circumstances have changed. He's coming off a catastrophic knee injury and is currently on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. Even when he returns, it's expected that the Cleveland Browns may adopt a committee approach, diminishing Chubb's workload and efficiency. Given these uncertainties, it's important to be cautious when considering Chubb in drafts. Drafting him before Round 10 in full PPR leagues might be too early, especially when his teammate Jerome Ford is available later in Round 9.

To avoid busts like Love and Chubb, here are three essential rules:

1. Don't draft veteran running backs who changed teams and expect them to be better than they were in previous seasons. With a significant number of running backs changing teams this year, statistical analysis shows a trend of underperformance from veterans in new systems. This is especially true for older running backs. Saquon Barkley's move to the Eagles and Derrick Henry's shift to the Ravens are prime examples of situations that may not yield favorable results in terms of fantasy production.

2. Trust the signs of decline in pass catchers who are over 30 years old. While Davante Adams and Travis Kelce have been fantasy studs, their efficiency took a hit in the previous season. With Adams turning 32 and the addition of Brock Bowers in the Green Bay Packers' roster, it may be wise to consider Adams later in the draft. Similarly, Kelce, who will turn 35 in October, is facing increased competition within the Kansas City Chiefs' offense. Opting for alternative tight ends like Sam Laporta, Trey McBride, or Mark Andrews might be a safer choice.

3. Avoid being the first person to draft a quarterback in your league. Josh Allen, despite his success last year, should not be drafted as the first QB off the board. The lack of a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver on the roster and questionable options at WR2 raises concerns about Allen's fantasy production. Additionally, with the trend of run-heavy offenses and the unpredictability of rushing touchdowns, waiting until later rounds to select a quarterback like Lamar Jackson could be a smarter move.

In the world of fantasy football, drafting strategy is vital for success. Adhering to these rules can help mitigate the risk of busts and lead to a stronger fantasy team. Remember, the key is to analyze player circumstances based on their changing situations, signs of decline, and draft position trends. By doing so, fantasy managers can make sound decisions and maximize their chances of winning their league.