As the Michigan Wolverines enter a period of transition following the departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh, the program is still grappling with two ongoing NCAA investigations. These investigations, which involve allegations of illicit recruiting, coaching violations, prohibited off-campus scouting, and sign-stealing, raise questions about the team's future and potential penalties they may face.

The first case, which resulted in a formal notice of allegations on December 20, 2023, charged the program with four Level II violations related to recruiting and coaching during the COVID-19 dead period. Additionally, Harbaugh faces a Level I violation for misleading investigators. In an attempt to mitigate potential penalties, the school self-imposed a three-game suspension for Harbaugh and a one-game suspension for assistant coach Sherrone Moore. However, a negotiated resolution proposal was rejected by the NCAA Committee on Infractions, signaling that the case will proceed through the NCAA's judicial process.

The second investigation, centered around prohibited off-campus scouting and sign-stealing, has yet to result in an official notice of allegations. However, reports suggest that more violations are forthcoming. This investigation could potentially implicate Harbaugh under the updated coach responsibility provision, which holds coaches accountable for the actions of their staff leading to Level I violations.

Harbaugh's suspension at the end of the 2023 regular season, imposed by the Big Ten for a violation of its sportsmanship policy, stemmed from the ongoing NCAA case. While Michigan may argue that the suspension serves as a mitigating factor, it is the earlier three-game suspension at the beginning of the season that is directly tied to NCAA issues.

The potential penalties for Harbaugh are significant and could include an additional Level I violation as a repeat offender, which has historically led to the issuance of a "show-cause" punishment. A show-cause penalty severely limits an individual's ability to coach at an NCAA institution for a designated period of time.

Michigan is prepared for the outcome of the first investigation, as they have already implemented self-imposed penalties. However, the prohibited scouting and sign-stealing case presents more uncertainty. The NCAA's ability to connect the alleged scheme to other staff members and whether they will still be employed by the Wolverines when the notice of allegations is issued remains uncertain.

Michigan has already experienced staff changes, with the resignation of staff member Connor Stalions and the firing of linebackers coach Chris Partridge, potentially linked to the ongoing scandal. While the school has not explicitly admitted guilt, their change in tone from defiance to acceptance suggests that the NCAA's case holds substantial evidence.

The potential punishments for Michigan may include scholarships reductions, restricted recruiting and scouting days for the coaching staff, and the possibility of vacated wins. However, recent trends indicate that the NCAA has softened its approach towards penalizing current players for past scandals, making it less likely that the current or future Wolverines will bear a heavy burden.

Michigan is expected to present its case, arguing that any advantage gained from the prohibited scouting was not significant enough to cast doubt on the team's success. The outcome of these investigations will ultimately be determined by the NCAA, who still hold the power to issue punitive measures that could tarnish the program's record books.

As the Wolverines navigate these investigations and seek a new head coach to replace Harbaugh, they face an uncertain future. The resolution of these cases will determine the extent of the impact on the team, its legacy, and its ability to move forward.