In a recent report, exhibition stocks analyst Eric Wold of B. Riley revised his box office projections for the coming years, taking into account the impact of the Hollywood writers and actors strikes and subsequent release date changes by studios. Wold's analysis highlights the potential adverse effects on box office revenues in 2024, while also expressing optimism for a rebound in 2025.

Wold's 2023 projections already reflect a decline in domestic box office revenues based on recent performance trends. With domestic box office revenues totaling $873 million, representing a 30 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2019, Wold adjusted his fourth-quarter domestic box office projection from $2.167 billion to $1.878 bilion. This adjustment brings Wold's 2023 box office projection down from $9.216 billion to $8.927 billion.

Looking ahead to 2024 and 2025, Wold estimates that recent release date shifts could have an adverse impact on 2024 domestic box office revenues of $847 million but potentially benefit 2025 box office revenues by $899 million. However, despite the changes, Wold lowered his 2024 domestic box office forecast from $9.617 billion to $8.609 billion and his 2025 domestic estimate from $10.299 billion to $9.920 billion.

Wold emphasizes that the potential decrease in 2024 and subsequent increase in 2025 box office revenues represents a decline of approximately 4 percent followed by a 15 percent increase, respectively, bringing the 2025 box office back to roughly 87 percent of pre-pandemic levels. However, the analyst suggests that these projections may be conservative, noting that the film slate may firm up in the coming quarters, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected results.

Despite the adjustments, Wold maintains a positive outlook on the exhibition sector, believing that moviegoing demand remains strong in the post-pandemic era. He reiterates his "buy" ratings on the stocks of Cinemark, Imax Corp., and Marcus Corp., with price targets of $23, $27, and $23, respectively. Wold also notes the progress made by AMC Theatres, signaling a more positive view on the shares and rating them as "neutral" with a price target of $15.

As the industry navigates the aftermath of the strikes and adjusts to the new release schedules, analysts like Eric Wold continue to analyze the impact on box office revenues, offering insights into the potential future performance of exhibition sector stocks.