Apple Faces Uncertainty as Market Value Surges but Growth Outlook Tepid
ICARO Media Group
Apple Inc., the world's most valuable publicly-traded company, has seen an impressive gain of nearly $1 trillion in market value this year. However, analysts are warning that such gains may be harder to come by in 2024 as the tech giant faces various challenges.
One of the significant concerns for Apple is the uncertainty in China, where government agencies are cracking down on foreign-made devices. This crackdown, combined with intensifying competition from Huawei Technologies Co., poses a risk to Apple's market dominance in the region. Furthermore, just days before Christmas, Apple's smartwatch business faces a potential ban in the United States. These factors could potentially hamper the company's revenue growth.
While the stock has experienced a remarkable 50% rally this year, driven by investor confidence in Apple's ability to generate substantial profits even in challenging economic conditions, it has also left the stock in expensive territory. With a valuation of 29 times projected profits over the next year, nearly double its 10-year average, investors are becoming cautious about the stock's high price.
Eric Clark, a portfolio manager at Accuvest Global Advisors, has trimmed his position in Apple and other big tech stocks, citing the risk of investors diverting funds to other areas that may have greater upside potential for 2024. As interest rates are expected to stabilize after the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, traders are beginning to develop an appetite for riskier stocks, widening the market rally.
For Apple to sustain its market value growth, a key driver would be an acceleration in profits. However, Wall Street analysts are currently projecting modest growth, with revenue estimated to increase by just 3.7% in fiscal 2024 and profit expansion of 7.6%. This disparity between the company's high market value and its tepid growth outlook has cooled analyst enthusiasm for the stock.
While Wall Street is largely bullish on big tech, it remains cautious when it comes to Apple. The stock has attracted only 34 buy-equivalent recommendations, significantly fewer than other tech giants like Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platform Inc., and Nvidia Corp. Some analysts, however, remain positive about Apple's prospects. Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives projects that the stock could reach a market value of $4 trillion by the end of next year, significantly higher than the average analyst expectation of $199.
Despite the challenges, some experts, such as Eric Clark from Accuvest, still believe in the strength of Apple's iPhone and consider it a "higher multiple and a warranted" investment. The iPhone is hailed as the greatest consumer staple ever created.
As the year comes to a close, the Nasdaq 100 Index has seen a surge of over 50%, but some stocks have missed the rally. While T-Mobile US Inc. has experienced an 11% rise in 2023, peers Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. have both declined. AT&T, in particular, is the worst performer in the group due to concerns over potential high costs associated with cleaning up contamination from lead-clad wiring in its network.
In other news, ByteDance Ltd., the parent company of popular social media platform TikTok, has reported a surge in sales for 2023, surpassing $110 billion. This growth indicates that TikTok's fledgling e-commerce business is driving expansion, even during a period of economic malaise. Additionally, Fujitsu Ltd. aims to rejuvenate negotiations to sell a $730 million stake in its air-conditioning business, a move that could propel its expansion into the burgeoning market for AI services.