Voter Interest in 2024 Election Hits 20-Year Low as Americans Express Negative Views Towards Biden and Trump, NBC News Poll Reveals
ICARO Media Group
According to the latest national NBC News poll, the level of voter interest in the upcoming 2024 election has reached an almost 20-year low. The survey also highlights the majority of Americans holding unfavorable opinions of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. These findings come amidst a shifting political landscape and the entrance of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., adding a new dynamic to an already uncertain presidential race with over six months left until Election Day.
The poll, conducted from April 12-16, shows that only 64% of registered voters express a high level of interest in November's election. This number is significantly lower than at the same point in previous presidential contests, including 2008 (74%), 2012 (67%), 2016 (69%), and 2020 (77%). The trend of relatively low and stagnant interest has been observed for months leading up to the election.
Importantly, voter interest has historically acted as a signal for voter turnout in presidential contests. Republican pollster Bill McInturff suggests that this year's election may see a lower percentage of eligible voters casting their ballots compared to the previous election in 2020.
Breaking down the levels of interest by party affiliation, 70% of self-identified Republicans express a high degree of interest in the upcoming election, compared to 65% of Democrats. Independents, however, report a lower level of interest at 48%. Remarkably, only 36% of voters between the ages of 18 and 34 consider themselves highly invested in the election, raising concerns about young voter turnout.
In terms of candidate preferences, the poll reveals a tight race between Biden and Trump. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump has a slim 2-point lead over Biden among registered voters, with 46% supporting Trump compared to 44% supporting Biden. However, this difference falls within the poll's margin of error. Trump performs well among men, white voters, and white voters without college degrees, while Biden enjoys advantages among Black voters, women, and Latinos.
When the ballot includes five named candidates, Biden edges out Trump with a 2-point lead. The breakdown for this scenario is as follows: Biden at 39%, Trump at 37%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 13%, Jill Stein at 3%, and Cornel West at 2%. Notably, the expanded ballot shows more Trump supporters opting for Kennedy than Biden supporters, deviating from the results of some other surveys.
The poll also explores approval ratings for President Biden. It reveals a 5-point increase since January, with 42% of registered voters approving of his overall job performance. However, the majority, 56%, still disapprove of his performance, although this represents a 4-point decrease from January's poll.
As the 2024 election looms, the low level of voter interest and the presence of an independent candidate could significantly impact the outcome. With a divided electorate and different views on the leading candidates, the race remains fluid with uncertainties and challenges lying ahead.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is based on a national NBC News poll conducted from April 12-16. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.