Vice President Kamala Harris Tightly Leads Donald Trump in Conservative-Leaning Poll

ICARO Media Group
Politics
03/09/2024 22h35

In a surprising turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris now holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in a recent survey conducted by conservative-leaning polling group, Rasmussen Reports. The results, based on a sample of 380 respondents, indicate that Harris has a 1-point advantage over Trump, with 47 percent support compared to his 46 percent, as the 2024 election draws closer.

This poll marks a continuation of the trend that has seen Harris gradually closing the gap with Trump since she entered the race after President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign. In a previous Rasmussen poll conducted on July 23 immediately after Biden endorsed Harris, Trump had enjoyed a comfortable 16-point lead over the vice president.

The significance of these results lies in the fact that even in a conservative-leaning poll like Rasmussen Reports, Harris is now positioned as the frontrunner for the 2024 election. The outcome has raised eyebrows, with political observers and analysts taking note of the unexpected turn of events. Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, even described the poll as "a sign of the apocalypse."

Rasmussen Reports itself seemed taken aback by the outcome, acknowledging the surprising results by posting "another night added to the tracker" along with a staring eyes emoji when sharing the latest poll where Harris leads. It is important to note that Rasmussen Reports describes itself as a nonpartisan pollster.

Reactions to the survey from the Trump camp have dismissed the findings, citing other polls that show the former president leading Harris, particularly in battleground states. The office of Vice President Harris has been contacted for comment on the poll but has yet to respond.

It is worth mentioning that Rasmussen Reports has faced criticism in the past for alleged bias towards Republican candidates. In fact, in March 2024, polling and forecasting website FiveThirtyEight removed Rasmussen Reports from its list of reliable polling companies due to concerns about failing to meet standards.

While some caution against reading too much into Rasmussen Reports' results, suggesting that there may be potential data manipulation to boost their credibility in the face of future Trump surges, Mark Mitchell, head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, defended their integrity. Mitchell pointed out that their track record includes accurately predicting the 2016 election and slightly favoring Biden in 2020.

Notably, the latest poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, which is higher due to the smaller sample size. Current national averages according to FiveThirtyEight's live poll tracker give Harris a 3.2-point lead over Trump in the 2024 election, with 47.1 percent support compared to Trump's 43.8 percent.

As the November election approaches, the dynamics of the 2024 race remain fluid, and these surprising poll results leave political pundits eagerly awaiting further developments in the ongoing campaign.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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