Vice President Harris Leads Trump in Key Swing States, New Poll Reveals

ICARO Media Group
Politics
11/10/2024 22h23

**Kamala Harris Holds Slight Edge Over Donald Trump in Key Swing States, Poll Shows**

In a critical moment leading up to the November election, Vice President Kamala Harris has carved out a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in four of the seven pivotal battleground states, according to a recent Wall Street Journal survey. Conducted among 600 registered voters within each of these crucial states, the poll reveals that Harris is marginally ahead in Arizona (47 percent to 45), Michigan (47 percent to 45), Wisconsin (46 percent to 45), and Georgia (46 percent to 45). The survey included an expanded ballot featuring third-party and independent candidates where applicable.

Conversely, Trump maintains slender advantages over Harris in Pennsylvania (46 percent to 45) and North Carolina (46 percent to 45). Notably, Trump also holds a more substantial lead in Nevada, standing at 47 percent to Harris's 42 percent. The overall tightness of the races, with most leads falling within the margin of error, underscores how contested the election remains just over three weeks from election day.

The survey, conducted by GBAO and Fabrizio Lee polling firms between September 28 and October 8, indicates that, according to Wall Street Journal's projections, Harris is on course to secure 278 Electoral College votes, pending no unexpected outcomes in other states. Among the 4,200 swing-state voters surveyed, Trump slightly outpaces Harris overall, leading by 46 percent to 45.

David Lee, a Republican pollster involved in the survey, emphasized the significance of the remaining campaign period, stating, "This thing is a dead heat and is going to come down to the wire. These last three weeks matter." His counterpart from the Democratic side, Michael Bocian, echoed this sentiment, calling the race "an even-steven, tight, tight race."

The poll results suggest that Harris's potential pathway to victory could traverse the Sun Belt swing states, with a notable increase in voter support in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina since March. During that earlier poll, Trump held the advantage in six battleground states, with a tie in Wisconsin, when Joe Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket.

For Harris, securing the traditionally Democratic-leaning states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could be crucial. Meanwhile, Trump's optimal route to 270 Electoral College votes involves commanding victories in North Carolina and Georgia, alongside flipping Pennsylvania.

On issue-specific preference, Trump holds a commanding 10-point lead over Harris on voters' perception of economic management (50 percent to 40). He is also favored on matters of immigration and border security by a significant margin (52 percent to 36). Harris, however, is viewed more favorably on the issue of abortion, leading Trump by 16 points (51 percent to 35).

Given the neck-and-neck polling results, the final weeks leading up to the election will play a decisive role in determining the next U.S. president. Newsweek has reached out to both the Trump and Harris campaigns for their comments on the poll findings.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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