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A significant portion of the United States is at an elevated risk of blackouts this summer as demand for electricity outpaces supply, according to a forecast from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). As temperatures rise and the nation’s aging power grid is strained, the NERC report highlights the increasing challenge of meeting customer needs.

Regional power grids, stretching from the Upper Midwest down to Texas, may find themselves underpowered during prolonged heatwaves. This is largely due to a sharp rise in projected electricity demand. Compared to last summer, the U.S. will need an additional 10 gigawatts of power, enough to supply electricity to up to 10 million homes.

The NERC report attributes the surge in electricity demand to several factors, including the rapid growth of energy-intensive data centers and manufacturing plants. These facilities are demanding energy faster than new power plants can be built. Additionally, extreme temperatures drive up the use of air conditioning in homes and businesses, placing further strain on the electricity infrastructure.

Complicating matters is the country’s transition to green energy sources such as wind and solar power. While these sources have been significantly integrated into the grid, their intermittent nature poses challenges, as they cannot consistently provide power around the clock. Though industrial-sized batteries are being used to store this energy, current storage capacity is still insufficient.

Moreover, the retirement of aging gas and coal plants has reduced the available power, which is particularly concerning for the regional grid that covers 15 states from North Dakota to Louisiana. The report warns that this grid is at an increased risk of falling short during periods of high demand or low resource availability.

Efforts to build new gas plants have been hampered by supply chain delays and transmission bottlenecks, stretching the time needed to bring a plant online to three or four years. Similar issues are delaying essential upgrades to power lines and transformers, with shortages in parts, materials, and skilled technicians cited as significant obstacles.

Adding to the pressure, weather forecasts predict another hot and dry summer. The past two summers have been among the hottest on record, and such conditions not only drive up electricity demand but can also lead to forced outages. According to NERC, extreme weather remains a primary driver of electricity demand, compounding the risks facing the U.S. power grid this summer.