### New Jersey Shifts Right in Federal Election, Despite Democratic Win

In a surprising twist for a state known for its consistent Democratic leanings, New Jersey displayed swing-state tendencies in the latest federal election. While Vice President Kamala Harris ultimately secured the state's electoral votes, former President Donald Trump made significant inroads, narrowing Harris's lead to just five points. This marks the closest a Republican presidential candidate has come to winning New Jersey since George H.W. Bush's near-win in 1992.

Trump's gains in New Jersey are particularly noteworthy given the state's strong Democratic voter registration advantage, which outnumbers Republicans by 900,000. The former president's campaign efforts, particularly his rallies in South Jersey, appear to have paid dividends. Despite still falling short, Trump's advancement in this deeply blue state stunned both Republicans and Democrats.

Hudson County, one of New Jersey's most reliable Democratic strongholds with a large Hispanic population, showed a marked increase in support for Trump. In 2020, only 26 percent of voters in Hudson County chose Trump, but that figure rose to 35 percent this year. Neighboring Passaic County, with a significant Hispanic and Arab American population, even swung in favor of Trump. The shift contributed to a tighter-than-expected House race in the 9th District, where Democrat Nellie Pou won by just four points against Republican Billy Prempeh, who had lost by 34 points in the previous election cycle.

Jose Arango, the Republican Party chair in Hudson County, attributed the shift to economic concerns among working-class Hispanics facing high rent and living costs. A Fox News exit poll revealed that 56 percent of New Jersey voters who supported Trump cited the economy and jobs as their primary issues.

This election pattern is not entirely without precedent. In 2021, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy narrowly won re-election by only three points, and Republicans gained six legislative seats that year. Chris Russell, a Republican strategist, believes the trend reflects voter frustration with economic issues and cultural sentiments that Trump has successfully tapped into.

Despite these inroads, Democrats maintained control of all nine of their House seats and retained a U.S. Senate seat, continuing a streak of over five decades without a Republican Senate victory in New Jersey. Democratic strategist Dan Bryan emphasized the symbolic nature of the close presidential race, cautioning his party to examine whether the results are an anomaly or indicative of deeper issues.

The rightward shift in New Jersey indicates that Republicans' messaging may be resonating with voter demographics that were previously out of reach, including working-class Black and Hispanic communities. Atlantic County, home to Atlantic City, supported a Republican presidential candidate for the first time in decades, signaling potential vulnerabilities in the Democratic hold over these groups.

Democratic leaders like Michael Suleiman of Atlantic County recognize the need for the party’s messaging to better address the concerns of non-affluent, non-college-educated voters and communities of color. He noted that relying solely on the support of affluent, elite liberals would not suffice.

As both parties reflect on the surprising results, it is clear that New Jersey's political landscape may be more fluid than previously thought.