The fate of popular social media app TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as the House of Representatives voted in favor of a bill that leaves its parent company, ByteDance, with two options: selling the app to an approved buyer or facing an outright ban. With experts predicting that the bill will be approved in the Senate and President Joe Biden signaling his willingness to sign it, the future of TikTok is uncertain.

However, even if the bill becomes law, it could be years before a TikTok ban goes into effect. ByteDance is expected to challenge the statute in court, which would further delay any potential outcome. The language of the bill grants ByteDance a nine-month period to find an American buyer for TikTok after the bill is signed into law, and the deadline could be pushed back an additional 90 days by the president. This means that TikTok could potentially continue operating in the U.S. for more than a year without a sale.

If ByteDance follows through with its intention to sue and block the implementation of the statute, the case will be taken up by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. The "clock" on any ban would be effectively paused during the judicial review process. Once the D.C. court issues its ruling, the losing side is likely to request a review by the U.S. Supreme Court, further prolonging the timeline. Financial services firm BTIG's director of policy, Isaac Boltansky, estimates that nothing would go into effect until 2026 if the Supreme Court reviews the case.

TikTok plans to argue that the ban is unconstitutional and highlight the steps it has taken to protect American users' data. The app has launched a lobbying campaign featuring small-business owners and influencers who believe their livelihood is dependent on TikTok's existence.

The bill states that TikTok can continue its operations if ByteDance sells the app to an approved U.S. firm. While many large U.S. tech companies may be interested in acquiring TikTok, there is skepticism from the Biden administration and critics of Big Tech, who are wary of expanding their power. Meanwhile, other potential buyers may emerge, such as a group led by former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and former Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick.

Experts believe that the potential value of TikTok without its powerful recommendation algorithm may be significantly lower. ByteDance, valued at hundreds of billions of dollars, may be unwilling to agree to any sale without the algorithm. The Chinese government has also expressed its opposition to such a sale, considering the algorithm a national security asset.

While the ban of TikTok could have an impact, most users already have a presence on other platforms, which may limit the impact on their livelihoods. A survey conducted by financial services group Wedbush revealed that approximately 60% of TikTok users would migrate to Instagram or Facebook in the event of a sale, while 19% would move to YouTube. Analysts predict that Meta (owner of Instagram and Facebook) could potentially capture 60% of TikTok's U.S. ad revenue, with YouTube gaining 25% and Snapchat also benefiting.

The passing of the bill in the House signifies a growing concern over Chinese influence and the potential national security threat posed by TikTok. Lawmakers and law enforcement officials have raised concerns about the app being controlled by the Chinese Communist Party and the possibility of data access and misinformation dissemination.

With the Senate considering the bill alongside a foreign aid supplemental plan, the future of TikTok remains uncertain as Congress seeks to address both national security concerns and the impact of social media on youth. The journey towards a resolution will likely be a long and complex one, with the ultimate outcome still far from certain.