In a recent escalation of hostilities, Ukrainian drones targeted a Russian oil refinery in the Kaluga region, setting it ablaze, according to the RIA state news agency. This attack comes after Ukraine's previous strike on Gazprom's Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery, one of Russia's largest. The ongoing attacks aim to hinder Russian export revenues and curtail fuel supplies to President Vladimir Putin's forces.

While Ukraine presses forward with these strikes, the Biden Administration has expressed concerns about their potential impact on global energy markets. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that such attacks could create a ripple effect, urging Ukraine to shift its focus to military targets that directly influence the ongoing conflict.

However, experts writing for Foreign Affairs magazine argue that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries will not result in higher global energy prices. They posit that these attacks only impede Russia's ability to refine its oil into products like gasoline, without affecting the extraction or export capacity. In fact, the experts argue, reduced domestic refining capacity may lead Russia to export more crude oil, causing global prices to decline.

Additionally, the strikes have reportedly affected Russian citizens, with soaring prices for refined products like gas and diesel. These attacks align with the aims of failed Western economic sanctions, as noted by the experts. The West has imposed various sanctions on Russia to limit its energy income, including a ban on Russian oil and gas by the US and the UK, and a price cap on Russian crude oil set by G7 leaders at $60 per barrel.

Despite the sanctions, Russia has managed to circumvent these measures. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, announced last December that the country had redirected the majority of its oil exports to China and India. As a result, Russia's oil revenue in April more than doubled compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 1.23 trillion rubles. This success demonstrates Russia's ability to redirect operations and mitigate the impact of sanctions.

In April of this year, Reuters reported that Russia swiftly repaired some of the key refining facilities affected by Ukrainian strikes, reducing the capacity constraint from nearly 14% at the end of March to approximately 10%. It remains uncertain how the recent attacks on refining sites have affected Russia's repair efforts.

As the conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues, the effects of Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries remain a matter of debate. While they undoubtedly disrupt Russia's refining capabilities and impact domestic prices, their impact on global energy markets and prices remains uncertain.