U.S. Presidential Race Tightens as Harris Holds National Lead, but Electoral College Outcome Uncertain

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
17/09/2024 23h06

With less than 50 days until Election Day, recent polls continue to show a narrow margin between the U.S. presidential candidates. According to prognosticator Nate Silver, Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the national polls average, with 48.9% of the vote compared to Trump's 46%. However, Silver's Electoral College forecast reveals that Harris faces a significant challenge, as she has a mere 25% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College vote.

Surprisingly, there appears to be a discrepancy between Silver's projections and other election forecasts, particularly from his former company FiveThirtyEight. As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 61% chance of winning the Electoral College, presenting an almost 18-point swing between both forecasters.

In a recent poll conducted by USA TODAY/Suffolk University, Harris also leads Trump by three points in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, with 49% support compared to Trump's 46%. However, the poll's margin of error, which stands at 4.4 percentage points, indicates that the race in Pennsylvania remains highly competitive.

The survey not only highlighted Harris' lead in Pennsylvania but also shed light on voters' opinions of the candidates. It revealed that Harris is viewed more favorably than Trump, with 49% of respondents having a positive opinion of the vice president compared to 43% for the former president.

Furthermore, the poll unveiled that Harris is currently ahead in two critical counties in Pennsylvania: Erie and Northampton. This comes as another boost to the vice president's campaign, as she not only leads in Pennsylvania but also holds a national advantage, according to a separate USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. The poll shows Harris with a 47.6% to 43.3% lead over Trump.

The changing dynamics of the race are also apparent when analyzing specific voter demographics. Harris has experienced a considerable swing in support among various groups. The poll reveals a 24-point swing among young voters, an 18-point swing among Hispanic voters, and a 17-point swing among Black voters, all in favor of Harris.

Interestingly, the shift in voter sentiment is not limited to polls alone. Betting markets also indicate a shift in favor of Harris. Betfair Exchange, the largest peer-to-peer U.K. betting platform, and Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform, currently have Harris leading Trump by 5 and 2 points respectively. This represents a significant change for Trump, who, during the Republican National Convention, had odds of up to 70% on Betfair to win the presidency. As of Tuesday, Trump's odds to win now stand at 45%, a drop of more than 30 points since July.

As the U.S. presidential race enters its final stretch, Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself holding a narrow national lead but facing an uncertain outcome in the Electoral College. With ongoing shifts in polling data and betting markets, the race remains highly competitive, leaving both campaigns with a challenging road ahead.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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