Trump Surges Ahead in Bookmakers' Favorites for Presidential Election

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
21/08/2024 22h28

In a surprising turn of events, former President Donald Trump has edged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris as the bookmakers' favorite to win the upcoming presidential election. The shift in betting trends came after independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign hinted at the possibility of dropping out and backing Trump. According to Election Betting Odds, which combines data from multiple betting markets, Trump's chances of victory now stand at 49.3%, narrowly surpassing Harris' 49.1%.

This dramatic surge in favor of Trump marks a significant turnaround within just 24 hours. Previously, the cumulative odds favored Harris by more than 5.5 points on Monday. Two weeks ago, Harris had managed to overtake Trump for the first time, but today's developments have quickly shifted the landscape once again.

It is worth noting that these betting trends are based on data collected from different markets, including Polymarket and PredictIt. While Polymarket accepts bets from around the world, PredictIt exclusively allows participation from U.S. residents above the age of 18. This distinction plays a role in shaping the overall predictions.

In a separate observation, FiveThirtyEight's weighted average of national polls shows Harris currently leading Trump by a margin of 2.8 points. However, these poll numbers only provide a snapshot of public sentiment and are not directly linked to the betting odds.

The recent proposal from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) banning all election-related betting in the U.S. derivatives market has further highlighted the complexities surrounding this subject. PredictIt, which faced a legal battle after the CFTC attempted to shut down its platform from taking bets on the presidential race, had previously been permitted to operate.

As the election draws closer, the battle for the presidency remains highly unpredictable. The betting odds continue to ebb and flow, reflecting the uncertainty and intense competition between the candidates. With Trump retaking the lead, it remains to be seen how these betting markets will evolve in the coming weeks, as the race for the presidency reaches its climax.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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