**Potential Trump Victory Could Shape Supreme Court for Decades**

Conservatives currently hold a supermajority on the Supreme Court, a legacy of Donald Trump's presidency. With Trump now aiming for a second term as the Republican presidential nominee for the 2024 election, the right-leaning dominance of the court could persist for many years. The potential for further impact is magnified by the ages of Justices Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74, who may consider retiring, potentially allowing a re-elected Trump to appoint younger, like-minded successors.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, leading Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, emphasized the long-term impact this could have. "With President Trump and a Republican Senate, we could have a generation of conservative justices on the bench in the Supreme Court," Graham noted on his social media. This possibility is causing significant concern for progressive groups. Christina Harvey, executive director of Stand Up America, expressed her worries: "The real key here is Trump prevention. If Trump wins again, he could solidify right-wing control of the Supreme Court for decades."

Despite its crucial role, the Supreme Court has not been a central issue in recent presidential campaigns. This trend continues even though the court’s decisions, including a ruling on presidential immunity that allowed Trump to avoid trial before the upcoming election, have had significant implications. These decisions also cover highly debated topics like abortion, gun control, affirmative action, and environmental regulations.

Both Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden leveraged the prospect of Supreme Court nominations to garner support in previous elections. Trump’s lists of potential nominees in 2016 secured the backing of social conservatives, while in 2020, Biden promised to nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court, fulfilling this pledge by appointing Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson in 2022.

Trump's judicial appointments—Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh—have cemented a conservative majority, notably leading to the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. This decision has resulted in stricter abortion laws in Republican-led states but also sparked voter backlash that bolstered Democratic success in the midterms and placed abortion access on state ballots.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has focused more on reproductive rights in her campaign. Although she supports Biden’s proposed reforms for the Supreme Court, such as 18-year terms for justices and a binding ethics code, these topics seldom feature in her speeches. Political scientist Alex Badas from the University of Houston noted the challenges in using the Supreme Court as a campaign issue, stating that "the court is kind of esoteric" compared to straightforward issues like abortion.

Even if Harris gets the chance to appoint a new justice, this might not shift the court's ideological balance significantly. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the oldest liberal member of the court at 70, would be replaced like-for-like, leaving the conservative majority intact.

Historically, the Supreme Court only occasionally becomes a focal point in presidential elections. The sudden death of Justice Antonin Scalia in 2016 was one such instance, as it temporarily left the court equally balanced between liberal and conservative justices. The Republican Senate's refusal to consider President Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland—now Biden's attorney general—highlighted the political stakes involved.

According to Christopher Schmidt, co-director at the Supreme Court Institute at the Chicago-Kent College of Law, "2016 was exceptional because not only did you have a vacancy, but there was actually a vacancy that could crucially move the court in one direction or another." This potential shift underscores the enduring significance of Supreme Court nominations in shaping American law and politics for generations.