### Trump's Betting Odds Surging as Presidential Race Tightens

Donald Trump's betting odds for the 2024 presidential election have been on the rise, showing a significant shift from his standing during earlier campaigns. Recent data from Polymarket and Betfair Exchange indicates that Trump holds a considerable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, with a 22-percentage-point edge on Polymarket and a 20-point gap on Betfair Exchange as of Thursday at 7 a.m. ET. Although these figures represent a close race, historically, the gap between Trump and his opponent has never been this narrow, according to Betfair's records.

In previous elections, the accuracy of betting odds has seen only two major upsets since 1866. These occurred in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump, and in 1948 when Harry Truman defied 8-to-1 odds to beat Thomas Dewey. Such historical insights make the current dynamics between Trump and Harris even more intriguing.

Allan Lichtman, a historian with a track record of predicting 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections, has weighed in with his forecast for 2024, predicting a victory for Kamala Harris. Utilizing a system of thirteen "keys" or true-false questions that measure the performance and strength of the incumbent party, Lichtman presented his prediction in a video reported by The New York Times.

The competition between Harris and Trump is remarkably close according to polling data, further emphasizing the unpredictability of the race. In national polls averaged by Real Clear Politics, Harris leads Trump by a mere 1.7 percentage points. The landscape is even more competitive in battleground states; for instance, Trump has a 1.1 percentage-point lead in Arizona while Harris edges out Trump by just 0.3 percentage points in Wisconsin.

As the 2024 election approaches, the evolving numbers and expert predictions highlight a deeply contested race, with bettors and pollsters alike keenly monitoring every shift.