Trump Holds Largest National Lead Over Biden, According to Recent Poll

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
18/07/2024 21h42

In a recent survey conducted by CBS News/YouGov, former President Donald Trump has emerged with his largest national lead over President Biden in the ongoing campaign. The poll, conducted between July 16-18, 2024, included a representative sample of 2,247 registered voters nationwide.

The findings reveal that Trump is currently leading by five points nationally, and by three points across the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This growing advantage for Trump is significant, considering that it has been 20 years since a Republican presidential candidate has won the national popular vote, and over 30 years since a Republican has won by more than five points.

Interestingly, a majority of respondents, including some who do not intend to vote for Trump, believe that his recent words in response to the assassination attempt have been more unifying than divisive. Similarly, voters also perceive President Biden's response to the tragic events as unifying. However, despite these sentiments, it is Trump who seems to be benefiting from the perceived handling of the situation.

This positive perception of Trump's response to the assassination attempt may be a contributing factor for voters considering casting their ballots in his favor. However, the survey suggests that this effect is limited, as a majority of voters (two-thirds) claim that it has not influenced their decision-making process.

When it comes to the candidates' perceived dedication to fighting for their constituents, Trump emerges as the preferred choice among voters. They believe that he fights "a lot" for people like them, giving him an edge over his opponent.

In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump continues to hold the lead. While there are marginal differences in how Harris and Biden run among certain demographic groups such as younger voters and voters of color, Trump remains ahead.

Within the Democratic Party, a significant portion feels that Mr. Biden should step aside as the nominee. Additionally, Democrats seem to lag behind Republicans in terms of their likelihood of turning out to vote in this year's election.

The survey also highlights a bipartisan view, albeit more prevalent among Republicans, that the U.S. Secret Service could have done more to prevent the shooting incident on Saturday.

Despite the perceived unity displayed by both candidates, the survey suggests that eight out of ten voters believe that civility in U.S. politics has worsened in recent years. Moreover, a majority of Americans anticipate an increase in political violence in the future.

As the GOP nomination debate continues, the addition of Senator JD Vance to the Republican ticket has been met with positive feedback from Republican voters. Most express satisfaction, with half even expressing enthusiasm, particularly among the MAGA wing of the party.

It is important to note that the survey was conducted with a representative sample of registered voters nationwide and has a margin of error of ±2.7 points. The weighted sample accounts for factors such as gender, age, race, education, past vote, and is designed to be reflective of the overall population.

This polling data serves as a snapshot of the current state of the campaign and provides valuable insights into the sentiments of voters leading up to the upcoming election.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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