Trump Challenges Iowa Poll Predicting Harris Victory, Selzer Defends Accuracy

ICARO Media Group
Politics
03/11/2024 21h18

**Trump Criticizes Iowa Poll Predicting Kamala Harris Victory, Pollster Selzer Defends Accuracy**

Ann Selzer, noted pollster for the Iowa Poll, faced criticism from former President Donald Trump after her recent survey predicted a narrow victory for Kamala Harris in Iowa. On Sunday, Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, proclaiming, "No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it's not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!"

Selzer's poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, reported that 47 percent of Iowa voters support Harris, while 44 percent are in favor of Trump. This finding stands in contrast to other polls, such as those conducted by Emerson College, which indicated a 9-point lead for Trump in Iowa. The Emerson poll, also released on Saturday, appeared more favorable for Trump.

Selzer, known for her reliable last-minute polling in Iowa, defended her methodology in response to Trump's critique. In an email to Newsweek, she stated, "These are the kinds of comments seen for virtually any poll, including mine. The Des Moines Register includes a methodology statement with each story they publish. It's the same methodology used to show Trump winning Iowa in the final polls in 2016 and 2020. It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients-The Des Moines Register and Mediacom-to conjure fake numbers."

The Iowa poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and 31, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points. Notably, Harris's lead falls within this margin. Despite Selzer's track record, some prominent figures and Trump supporters, including Trump senior adviser Jason Miller, derided the poll. Miller referred to it dismissively as "one idiotic survey" in comments reported by CNN and NBC journalists.

Pollster Nate Silver also weighed in, acknowledging Selzer's history of accuracy but speculating that she might be incorrect this time. Conservative commentator Charlie Kirk echoed these sentiments, labeling the poll "fake" and alleging it was a tactic to suppress voter turnout.

Joey Mannarino, a conservative political strategist, emphatically rejected the poll's results, claiming, "Kamala Harris is not winning Iowa. I'm so certain of it I'll castrate myself on camera if it happens." His post, which has garnered over 1.1 million views, further criticized liberals' reactions.

Adding to the skepticism, a commentary channel known as Red Eagle Politics doubted the poll's validity, suggesting that the mathematical model should reflect a substantial Trump lead. They opined that Selzer might be jeopardizing her reputation with what they termed a "suppression poll."

Amid the polarized responses, Selzer continues to stand by her polling methods, underscoring their consistency and the trust placed in her by her clients.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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