The race for the presidency between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is intensifying as election day looms just six weeks ahead. Recent polls have shown a tight race with contrasting results in the battle for the national popular vote but indicating a narrow advantage for Trump in the Electoral College. A Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday revealed that Trump leads Harris by a slight margin among likely voters, 48% to 47%, while a CNN poll showed Harris leading by the same margin in the same demographic.

Despite Harris being ahead in the national popular vote according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, both surveys suggest that Trump may have the upper hand in the Electoral College. Historically, recent Democratic candidates have secured significant popular vote margins in states such as New York and California, which influence the Electoral College outcome. The polls also indicate that Trump is likely to become the 47th president, mirroring the 2016 election where Trump won the presidency by securing 304 electoral votes despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.

In light of voter enthusiasm, the polls shed light on shifting sentiments among supporters of both candidates. The Quinnipiac poll showed a dip in enthusiasm among Harris supporters, with 70% of them describing themselves as "very enthusiastic" compared to 75% in August. Conversely, 71% of Trump supporters expressed increased enthusiasm, with 71% stating they were "very enthusiastic" about voting for him, up from 68% in the previous month. With the election approaching, the focus is on which candidate can rally their supporters' enthusiasm to the finish line, as noted by Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy.