Trump and Harris Engage in a Close Battle in Key Battleground States, Post-Debate
ICARO Media Group
In the race towards the upcoming election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris find themselves locked in a closely contested competition, according to recent polls. The New York Times/Siena poll reveals that voters have become more attentive to the race following the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, with 64% of respondents now stating that they are paying significant attention, compared to 48% beforehand.
In a survey conducted by Emerson College, Trump maintains a slender lead of five or fewer points over Harris in four out of five battleground states. The only exception is Wisconsin, where the candidates are tied. However, it is worth mentioning that Harris outperforms Biden in all five states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
Multiple polls conducted before Biden's withdrawal showed Trump and Harris performing similarly against the former president. In the aftermath of Biden's dismal debate performance, Trump was able to slightly widen his narrow lead over Biden. A Forbes/HarrisX poll conducted from July 19-21 demonstrates Trump leading both Biden and Harris by six points. This represents a two-point increase in Trump's lead over Harris and a four-point increase over Biden since the groups' previous poll conducted from July 13-15. Meanwhile, a Yahoo/YouGov poll carried out from July 19-22 depicts a tie between Trump and Harris in a head-to-head matchup, with Harris trailing by two points in a six-way race that includes third-party candidates.
The CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week shows Trump leading Harris by three points and Biden by five. In another poll held by Economist/YouGov from July 13-16, Biden would lose to Trump by a margin of 43% to 41%, while Harris fares a bit worse with a loss of 44% to 39% against Trump.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, which incorporates the Morning Consult poll and nine others conducted before Biden's withdrawal, Trump maintains a 1.9-point lead over Harris. This average does not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday. In comparison, Trump's lead over Biden increased to 3.1 points as of Sunday, the day Biden dropped out of the race, marking a 1.6-point increase since the June 27 debate.
Tony Fabrizio, Trump's campaign pollster, anticipates a "short-term" surge in the polls for Harris in the coming weeks, as her entry into the race is expected to re-energize Democrats. In a memo released after the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Fabrizio referred to this projected increase as a "Harris Honeymoon."
Following Biden's decision to drop out of the race and endorse Harris, the Democratic Party quickly rallied around her. All Democratic governors and the majority of Democrats in Congress have thrown their support behind her. More than half of all delegates have announced plans to formally vote for her, solidifying her nomination. The party is expected to make the nomination official during the first week of August.
A recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll indicates that 87% of respondents believe Biden's decision to withdraw from the race was the right thing to do. Additionally, 41% of voters (including 65% of Democrats) consider this move to increase the party's chances of winning in November.
As the election draws closer, it remains to be seen how Trump and Harris will continue to shape their campaigns and captivate the attention of voters in these crucial battleground states.