In the latest election forecast by 538, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race for the presidency. Harris currently holds a 57-in-100 chance of winning in November, while Trump stands at 42-in-100. Despite Harris having a slight advantage over Trump initially, recent polls have shown a narrowing margin between the two candidates.

The shift in the forecast comes after The New York Times/Siena College polls released on Monday indicated favorable results for Trump in key battleground states. While these polls showed Trump leading in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, other polls have shown positive numbers for Harris in states like Wisconsin. The differing results have led to uncertainty in forecasting the election outcome.

The close margin between Harris and Trump is not just limited to individual states but could also impact the Electoral College results. The split between the northern battleground states favoring Harris and the Sun Belt states favoring Trump increases the likelihood of a tightly contested Electoral College victory. Even a small shift in percentages, such as in Nevada, could significantly impact the electoral map, potentially leading to a close outcome reminiscent of historical elections.