In a major blow to the African National Congress (ANC), early projections suggest that the party is set to win only about 42% of the national vote in the recent elections held on May 29th. This marks a drastic fall from the 57.5% it achieved in the previous elections in 2019.

The ANC, which has been the governing party in South Africa since 1994 and played a crucial role in the fight against apartheid, is now facing its biggest test since the end of the discriminatory regime. With a projected result that indicates the ANC will not have a parliamentary majority, Cyril Ramaphosa will become the first ANC leader without such a majority.

Unlike Nelson Mandela, who formed a coalition government during the early years of multi-racial democracy, President Ramaphosa will now face the challenge of having to negotiate and form alliances to maintain his party's hold on power.

This marks a critical moment for South Africa, comparable to the political negotiations that took place in the early 1990s and ultimately ended white rule. As the results, including those from concurrent provincial elections, come in over the next few days, all routes forward will depend on specific outcomes. However, two possible destinations emerge: pragmatism or populism.

President Ramaphosa, who played a key role in the negotiations that led to the dismantling of apartheid, now faces another defining task. The decisions made by him and other political leaders in the coming days will shape the country's direction for years to come.

The ANC's significant setback in these elections reflects a growing dissatisfaction with the party's governance and policies. As South Africa grapples with economic challenges, high levels of unemployment, and widespread corruption, the electorate has shown its desire for change.

While the precise outcomes of the elections are yet to be finalized, it is evident that the ANC's dominance in South African politics has been challenged. The country now stands at a crossroads, and the decisions made in the upcoming political negotiations will determine its future trajectory.

President Ramaphosa will need to navigate these negotiations skillfully, with the goal of uniting different factions and securing a stable government that can effectively address the pressing issues facing South Africa. The next few weeks are crucial, as the country waits to see whether pragmatism or populism will prevail in shaping its political landscape.