### Surprising Iowa Poll Results Shake Markets, Hit Trump's Campaign

In a startling turn of events, esteemed Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer has released a pre-Election Day poll indicating Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by a margin of 47% to 44% in Iowa. This development has sent shockwaves through political and financial circles, as Iowa was largely considered a stronghold for Trump. Notably, Trump had previously won Iowa by nine points in 2016 and eight points in 2020.

Selzer's unexpected poll results, published in the Des Moines Register, have cast doubt over electoral forecasts. With Trump potentially losing a state so firmly believed to be Republican, concerns are rising that he may face losses in key battleground states across the Midwest.

Financial markets reacted swiftly to the news. Previously, prediction markets were already trending away from Trump following his controversial rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27. Trump Media stock plunged 35% last week, mirroring the growing uncertainty about Trump's electoral prospects. However, Selzer's poll added a further bearish outlook to the Trump trade.

As the market absorbed Selzer's findings, the U.S. dollar dropped by 0.7% on Monday, according to Bloomberg. The Mexican peso, poised to be impacted significantly under Trump's proposed tariffs, appreciated by 1.4% against the dollar, while the euro gained 0.6%.

In another repercussion, U.S. Treasury yields declined, as Trump's fiscal policies were viewed as inflationary, potentially constraining the Federal Reserve's capacity to reduce interest rates. Stocks in Europe, previously trading lower due to fears of Trump's tariffs, saw a boost, suggesting some mitigation of those concerns.

The cryptocurrency market reflected similar sentiments, with the price of Bitcoin dipping by 1% on Monday. Trump's evolving stance on cryptocurrency, highlighted during the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July, had previously generated market optimism. However, as his electoral chances dimmed, so did investor enthusiasm.

On prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, Trump's electoral odds decreased significantly after the poll release. Polymarket saw Trump's victory probability fall from 65% on October 27 to 56% by Sunday. Kalshi reported even more dramatic shifts, with Harris briefly surpassing Trump on Saturday night. Although Trump's odds have recovered slightly, they remain below the highs of late October.

Interestingly, despite the overall negative sentiment, Trump Media stock diverged from its usual trend. On Monday, shares rose by 3% to $31 each, reflecting a modest recovery from its $53 value at the start of the previous week. The Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social and an aspiring streaming platform, showed resilience even as political uncertainties mounted.

This latest poll and its fallout have thrown the Trump campaign into unprecedented upheaval, with potential reverberations in both the upcoming election and the financial markets.