Republicans Prepare for Potential Biden Exit, Assess Implications for Trump Campaign
ICARO Media Group
In recent months, speculation has been brewing around the possibility of Joe Biden stepping down as the Democratic presidential nominee. Now, as Biden's political future faces uncertainty following his shaky debate performance, Republicans are considering what this scenario would mean for the Trump campaign.
Donald Trump and his allies have been capitalizing on the extended spotlight on Biden, strategically allowing him to take center stage while they observe from the sidelines. Trump has opted for a low-profile approach, with no public events scheduled and even surprising some aides by encouraging them to enjoy the Fourth of July holiday.
While the Trump campaign insists that their strategy remains unchanged regardless of Biden's presence on the ticket, some analysts believe that having Biden as the Democratic nominee actually makes the path back to the White House easier for Trump. They argue that the issues at stake in the election will remain the same, regardless of the Democratic candidate.
However, polling data indicates a lack of enthusiasm surrounding both Biden and Trump as presumptive nominees, leaving uncertain the potential impact of a change in the Democratic ticket on voter turnout and swing voters' opinions. Both Democrats and Republicans are now facing time constraints to make decisions before their respective party conventions in August.
Behind the scenes, the Republican National Committee has already been preparing for different scenarios. "Rolling books" of opposition research on prominent Democrats who could potentially replace Biden have been compiled, including figures like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. These books are continuously updated as these individuals are seen as perpetual candidates.
However, amidst the uncertainty surrounding Biden's future, Trump's campaign advisers are not planning to change their strategy until the situation becomes clearer. Some Republicans had anticipated a potential Biden exit due to the president's perceived decline, with figures like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley emphasizing the risk of Trump facing a more energetic and youthful opponent.
The Trump team did not anticipate the level of panic within the Democratic party following the debate and is now scrambling to prepare for all possible outcomes, including the need for a new campaign focused on a different Democratic opponent. Early discussions are already underway on how to attack Vice President Kamala Harris, with a focus on her previous statements defending Biden's fitness for office.
While most people close to Trump believe that a change in the Democratic ticket is unlikely, they cite factors such as the low name recognition of potential Biden replacements and the legal challenges involved in transferring the president's campaign funds to a new candidate. Biden himself has asserted his determination to stay in the race, telling his campaign staff, "No one is pushing me out."
Efforts to keep Biden on the ballot may also come from the right, as conservative organization The Heritage Foundation has been preparing for this scenario. They have released a playbook to challenge Democratic attempts to remove Biden from the ballot in specific states with statutory deadlines for naming nominees.
The timing of any departure by Biden would be crucial for potential legal challenges, as noted by Mike Howell, executive director of Heritage's election oversight project. The Republican party is closely monitoring the situation, strategizing for various possibilities in this unpredictable election year.
In the coming weeks, all eyes will be on the Democratic camp as they grapple with decisions that could significantly impact the 2024 presidential race. Republicans stand ready to adapt their campaign and messaging accordingly, aiming to secure a victory in their quest to keep the White House.