### Trump Struggles in Key Battleground States, Internal GOP Poll Shows

Pollsters and political analysts were taken aback after an internal polling memo from the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a Republican super PAC, revealed former President Donald Trump underperforming in several pivotal states. The memo, dated October 8, was acquired by Politico and contained polling that placed Trump behind Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points in Michigan and by 1 point in Pennsylvania. Trump and Harris were tied in both Nevada and Arizona, while Trump held a slim lead in Wisconsin by 1 point.

The Senate Leadership Fund, led by Steven Law, a former chief of staff for Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is a key entity raising funds and campaigning to help the Republican Party regain the majority in the U.S. Senate. The SLF, as a super PAC, can garner unlimited financial support from individuals and corporations but is restricted from directly coordinating with or contributing to candidate campaigns or political parties.

Political analyst Lakshya Jain voiced disbelief on X, formerly known as Twitter, over the Republican polling data. Jain stated, "I think that's the worst set of polls I've seen a party release since Democrats went all hands on deck to get Biden out of the race." Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports pollster Mark Mitchell dismissed the findings showing Trump narrowly leading Harris by stating, "There's no way, absolutely no way a Trump internal poll had him close in Ohio."

Despite the contentious nature of the data, the memo also shed light on some GOP Senate candidates lagging behind their Democratic rivals. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick was trailing Democratic Senator Bob Casey by 2 points, with McCormick polling at 46 percent against Casey’s 48 percent. Law noted that McCormick needed to close the polling gap with Trump voters in order to bolster his chances against Casey.

Optimism remained in certain states such as Montana, where GOP hopeful Tim Sheehy led Democratic Senator Jon Tester. However, concerns were mounting over battleground territories, particularly Michigan. Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin was strengthening her position against Republican Mike Rogers, leading 46 percent to 38 percent. Rogers had seen a significant decline in favorability ratings since August.

Surprisingly, traditionally red states also showed signs of trouble. In Texas, Republican Senator Ted Cruz was leading by a mere 1 point over Democratic challenger Representative Colin Allred, with polling at 48 percent to 47 percent. The memo attributed Cruz's vulnerability to Allred's significant financial advantage and increasing favorability.

In Nevada, the SLF's memo disclosed that Democrat Jacky Rosen was leading Republican Sam Brown by 7 points, with Brown struggling to close the gap due to persistent attacks on his stance on abortion. Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, remarked on X that leaking the internal poll was "nuts," especially in light of the unfavorable Nevada Senate numbers.

Absent from the memo's race analyses was Arizona, except for a note indicating Republican Kari Lake was trailing Democrat Ruben Gallego by 5 points. Lake's favorability was low, with 37 percent of voters viewing her favorably versus 53 percent unfavorably, while Gallego had a favorability rating of 40 percent and an unfavorable rating of 36 percent.