**Renowned Pollster J. Ann Selzer Retires After Unexpected Polling Miss**

ICARO Media Group
Politics
17/11/2024 19h22

**Renowned Pollster J. Ann Selzer Concludes Election Polling Career**

J. Ann Selzer, a distinguished figure in the realm of political polling in Iowa, announced the closure of her election polling operation. Selzer, who has been recognized for her exceptional accuracy in predicting election outcomes, surprised many with her last poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa—a significant outlier that culminated in a major miss.

At 68, Selzer revealed in her column for The Des Moines Register that she had decided over a year ago to make this election her final endeavor in polling. Despite her track record, her last prediction deviated notably, showing Harris ahead by three percentage points. This was in stark contrast to other polls, which consistently indicated Trump leading by a substantial margin. Ultimately, the election results showed Trump securing Iowa by over 13 points.

Reflecting on her career, Selzer acknowledged the ironic timing of her decision, expressing a desire to have ended on a more accurate note. "Polling is a science of estimation," she wrote, "and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So I'm humbled yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings."

Over her three-decade-long career, Selzer had earned a reputation as the "outlier queen" for her bold predictions. She notably forecasted Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses and correctly predicted Trump’s significant win over Joseph R. Biden Jr. in Iowa in 2020.

The Register, responsible for overseeing the Iowa Poll run by Selzer, noted on Sunday that it was difficult to pinpoint a single cause for this year’s polling discrepancy. Carol Hunter, The Register’s executive editor, emphasized the importance of evolving methods to better grasp the sentiments of Iowans on both state and national issues.

Selzer’s departure marks the end of an era in Iowa political polling, leaving behind a legacy of both remarkable accuracy and the occasional surprising outlier.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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