Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, warns that while a Trump presidency could provide a short-term economic boost, it may also bring longer-term financial challenges, particularly concerning the burgeoning deficit.

Analyzing a variety of predictive tools including betting markets, polls, election forecasts, and financial market trends, Barraud suggests that a Trump victory and a GOP clean sweep of Congress are the most probable outcomes. Known as the "world's most accurate economist" for his consistent forecasting accuracy in the US economy over the past 11 years as ranked by Bloomberg, Barraud's analysis carries significant weight.

According to Barraud, the indicators point towards not only a Trump win but also a Republican control of the Senate. While the House of Representatives remains more uncertain, current signs still favor a Republican victory. Contrarily, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, a continuation of the current split control in Congress is likely.

Barraud notes that a split control of Congress under a Trump presidency would likely stall much of his domestic economic agenda, forcing a pivot towards tariffs—a move that could slow the US economy and hinder global growth. However, in the more likely scenario of a Republican sweep, Barraud predicts a 2.1% to 2.3% boost in gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025.

Regardless of the presidential victor, Barraud anticipates the US economy to perform well in the short term. A significant concern under a Trump administration, according to Barraud, is the potential for tax cuts without compensatory financing, which could exacerbate the deficit. He projects the 10-year Treasury Bond yield to increase from approximately 4.29% to 4.5%, potentially reaching 5%.

Overall, Barraud believes a Trump administration could lead to GDP growth outpacing general consensus forecasts, which predict 2.6% growth for 2024 and 1.8% for 2025. Despite a currently tight presidential race, Trump holds a slight lead in both national polling and battleground-state polling as compiled by RealClearPolitics.

Adding to the mixed predictions, historian Dr. Allan Lichtman, noted for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten elections, bets on a Harris win. Meanwhile, polling analyst Nate Silver feels intuitively that Trump will emerge victorious. With the election just around the corner, the final outcome remains keenly anticipated.