In an unprecedented show of force, pro-Israel groups have poured over $16 million into the campaign to unseat Representative Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) in the upcoming Democratic primary. This substantial investment by organizations such as the United Democracy Project super PAC, aligned with the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), signals a significant shift in the ongoing internal Democratic debate surrounding the conflict in Gaza.

While pro-Israel groups have played an increasingly prominent role in Democratic primaries, their track record in high-profile races has been mixed. However, a victory in unseating Bowman would serve as a strong deterrent against criticizing Israel, potentially contributing to the defeat of incumbents who take such stances. This outcome would resonate even more strongly considering that these same groups failed to prevent Bowman's victory in 2020, and the Democratic base has shown a growing aversion towards Israel in recent months.

Over $60 million has been spent by AIPAC-aligned groups and the Democratic Majority for Israel on Democratic congressional primaries since the 2020 election. Remarkably, approximately a quarter of that funding has been devoted to unseating Bowman, making it the highest amount spent on any single race. Such a substantial sum is rarely seen in a congressional primary, underscoring the significance of this contest.

While these pro-Israel groups have demonstrated success with their financial investments in various races, there is no clear correlation between the amount spent and the probability of victory. This election cycle, they have also invested approximately $2 million in targeting another Squad member, Representative Cori Bush (D-Mo.), whose primary is scheduled for August 6th. This will serve as another important test for these influential groups.

However, the focus of the campaign against Bowman and other aligned members has not primarily revolved around Israel-related issues. Instead, it has centered on a range of factors, including Bowman's personal problems and his criticisms of Israel during the war in Gaza. Bowman's troubles also include pleading guilty to a misdemeanor after pulling a fire alarm during a heated congressional debate on a potential government shutdown, which resulted in his censure by the House.

Though primary losses are relatively rare occurrences, the fear of a challenging primary has proven to impact the behavior of members of Congress in recent years. Even without any members losing primaries thus far in 2021, the message sent by a potential Bowman defeat would not go unnoticed by his colleagues.

As the high-stakes Democratic primary looms, the massive financial support from pro-Israel groups highlights their commitment to shaping the party's stance on Israel-related issues. A victory in unseating Representative Bowman would not only be a significant win for these groups but also a strong message to other members of Congress regarding the potential consequences of challenging pro-Israel positions.