### Fed Interest Rate Decision Hinges on Powell's Speech and Jobs Data

Federal Reserve policymakers are on the brink of deciding whether to implement another significant interest-rate cut in November. This decision will become clearer in the coming week as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses economists and new employment figures are released by the government.

On Monday, Powell will give a speech about the US economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics conference. Toward the end of the week, the September jobs report is anticipated to reveal a still-healthy but decelerating labor market. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict a payroll increase of 146,000, similar to August’s numbers. Such a rise would leave the three-month average job growth at its weakest since mid-2019. The jobless rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings may have climbed 3.8% year-over-year.

Labor unrest has been on the rise, indicated by strikes and threats of walkouts. Boeing Co. factory workers left their jobs in mid-September, and dockworkers on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are poised to strike starting October 1. These disruptions suggest that the jobs report this Friday could be the last untainted snapshot of the US labor market before November’s Fed meeting.

Additional labor market insights will be provided by job openings data due on Tuesday, which are expected to show that August vacancies were near their lowest levels since early 2021. Economists will pay particular attention to the quit rate and dismissals to assess the cooling in labor demand.

According to Bloomberg Economics, the headline figure for September's nonfarm payrolls could exceed expectations, possibly bringing back discussions of a "no landing" scenario for the US economy. However, experts believe this headline number may overstate labor-market strength due to anomalies in labor data models and temporary seasonal factors.

The Institute for Supply Management will also release its employment measures in the manufacturing survey on Tuesday and the services index on Thursday. These surveys will provide further insights into private-sector hiring trends.

Globally, a range of data releases are expected to show slowing inflation from the euro zone to Turkey and South Korea, as well as business surveys in China. Next Monday, China will release a series of purchasing manager indexes following recent government stimulus measures, while South Korea’s inflation data, due later in the week, could prompt its central bank to consider a rate cut in October.

In Europe, key focus areas include inflation data from Germany and Italy, set for release on Monday, with the overall euro zone result coming on Tuesday. These reports are critical as traders now expect a rate cut at the October ECB meeting rather than in December. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak before the European Parliament to discuss these developments.

As global economies adjust to a range of challenges and policy decisions, the week ahead is poised to offer significant insights and potential market-moving information.