### Potential Electoral College Blowout Despite Tight Polls, Says CNN Data Expert

Despite the 2024 election being characterized as historically close, CNN data expert Harry Enten suggests a significant possibility that the winner will secure more than 300 Electoral College votes. This insight emerged during a discussion with CNN news host John Berman, who questioned the narrative of a close election.

Enten introduced the idea that while current polls indicate a razor-thin margin, a slight shift in voter preference could result in a decisive victory. He mentioned a 60% chance that the election winner will achieve at least 300 Electoral College votes, compared to a 40% chance of securing fewer than 300 votes. "For all the talk about this election being historically close, chances are the winner will score a relative blowout in the Electoral College," Enten explained.

This seemingly paradoxical situation is rooted in the polling dynamics within key swing states. According to Enten, the margins in these critical areas are under two points. However, historical data from 1972 onwards indicates an average polling error of 3.4 points in battleground states, adding a layer of uncertainty.

Enten's analysis included electoral maps showing potential paths to victory for both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, each achieving over 300 Electoral College votes. He emphasized that polling inaccuracies tend to sway in a singular direction across swing states, a pattern observed in past elections. For instance, in 2012, 92% of swing states swung in favor of Barack Obama, while in 2016, 83% favored Donald Trump due to underestimated polling.

In the 2020 election, polls across all swing states underestimated Trump's performance, highlighting the potential for similar outcomes in 2024. "History tells us that it is more likely than not that all of the swing-state polling errors would move in one direction," Enten remarked.

Enten concluded by advising viewers to be cautious about relying too heavily on current polling data. Given the historical trends and potential for polling errors, the upcoming election could very well end in a significant Electoral College victory for one of the candidates.