In the wake of former President Donald Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts, new polling data suggests a potential shift in support for both Trump and President Joe Biden. The data reveals a small but significant movement of Americans in key voting blocs towards Biden. These insights could have a consequential impact on a close presidential race, reminiscent of the 2020 election.

The data, collected in a post-verdict analysis, is based on nearly 2,000 interviews with voters who had previously participated in New York Times/Siena College surveys. Prior to the verdict, Trump held a three-point advantage over Biden. However, the analysis showed Trump's lead narrowing to just one point. While seemingly insignificant, this reduction could sway the outcome of a close election, akin to the narrow margin observed in certain battleground states in 2020.

Of concern to Trump is the revelation that support appears to be dwindling among disengaged Democratic-leaning voters and those who dislike both candidates. These voting groups have contributed significantly to boosting Trump's polling performance in recent months. Approximately one-fourth of those who voted for Biden in 2020 and had indicated support for Trump this year now express renewed backing for the incumbent president. Notably, among the so-called "double haters" - voters who dislike both candidates - Trump witnessed a loss of over one-fifth of his initial support.

While polling data following Trump's conviction remains relatively limited, one other post-verdict survey conducted by Republican firm Echelon Insights supports the findings of the Times analysis. The study displayed Biden with a two-point lead over Trump among recontacted voters, who previously indicated a tie between the two candidates before the jury's verdict was delivered.

Nonetheless, there are warning signs for Biden as well, particularly in crucial battleground states required to secure reelection. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in Georgia, which Biden narrowly won by 0.2 points in 2020, showed Trump leading by five points in a head-to-head match-up against the incumbent. Although within the survey's margin of error, when additional candidates such as independent Robert F. Kennedy were added to the mix, Trump's lead expanded to six points - beyond the margin of error.

Interestingly, the same Quinnipiac poll revealed that 50% of Georgia's voters agreed with the verdict in the Manhattan case, underscoring the mixed feelings prompted by Trump's conviction. A Times Opinion focus group of 11 undecided voters conducted after the verdict also reflected a range of opinions. Some participants expressed an inclination towards supporting Kennedy, while others believed Trump's conviction made Biden appear "ungracious" or questioned the President's involvement with the case.

On the other hand, some focus group participants expressed a negative shift in their opinion of Trump due to the verdict, aligning with the findings of the Times analysis. They cited Trump's incompetence as evident from his conviction, which weakened their support for him. One participant mentioned the Stormy Daniels saga, indicating that they wanted a president capable of handling such controversies with ease, leading them to lean towards Biden.

As the election is still five months away, voters continue to have time to reflect on Trump's conviction and potentially reconsider their stance. These recent polls indicate that the verdict has not only impacted perceptions of Trump but also influenced the dynamics of voter support, making the upcoming election an intriguing contest to watch.