In the upcoming November elections, Republicans are hopeful to flip New Jersey's Senate seat, given embattled Democratic Senator Bob Menendez's ongoing criminal trial. However, recent polls indicate that Representative Andy Kim, a fellow Democrat, is currently leading his rivals.

The trial revolves around Menendez facing corruption charges, with the Department of Justice accusing him and his wife of accepting bribes from business owners Wael Hana, Jose Uribe, and Fred Daibes. These bribes were allegedly given in exchange for advancing their own interests, as well as those of the Egyptian government during Menendez's tenure as the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The senator, however, pleads not guilty to all charges and maintains his innocence throughout the corruption case.

While Menendez is not running in the Democratic primary, he has yet to rule out an independent campaign. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted in April revealed that Kim, who represents New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, holds a lead over his Republican competitors. However, concerns arise if Menendez were to run as an independent, as his presence on the ballot could split the Democratic vote and potentially allow the GOP to secure a rare victory in a traditionally safe Democratic state.

The FDU poll, encompassing 809 registered voters, showed Kim leading Republicans Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner and real estate developer Curtis Bashaw. In a head-to-head matchup against Serrano Glassner, Kim maintained a 10-point lead with a 49-39 advantage. When pitted against Bashaw, Kim held a 9-point lead, prevailing 47-38.

Should Menendez decide to run as an independent, the poll suggests that Kim's lead would diminish. In a three-way race scenario, Kim would receive 45 percent of the vote, while Serrano Glassner would secure 39 percent, and Menendez would garner 7 percent. Alternatively, if Bashaw became the Republican nominee, he would receive 38 percent of the vote, Kim would secure 44 percent, and Menendez would collect 6 percent.

Newsweek reached out for comment to the campaigns of Kim, Menendez, Bashaw, and Serrano Glassner, but no official response has been provided yet. The Cook Political Report, categorizing the race as "Solid Democrat," indicates that it is not considered competitive and is unlikely to become a closely contested election. Historically, New Jersey has tended to lean toward Democratic candidates, with Joe Biden receiving 57 percent of the state's vote in the 2020 presidential election.

Menendez's corruption trial is set to enter its second week on May 20, while also encountering increasing backlash from his fellow Democrats. CNN reported that some vulnerable Democratic senators have not ruled out the possibility of expelling Menendez from the Senate, depending on the outcome of the trial. Senator Jon Tester of Montana stated, "I will cross that bridge when we get to it. We'll let the legal system do what it needs to do. As I've said every time, nobody is above the law. If he's found to be guilty, that does change the equation."

The New Jersey Senate race remains a topic of interest and speculation, with early indicators suggesting a lead for Representative Andy Kim despite the ongoing controversies surrounding Senator Bob Menendez's trial.