Poll Suggests France's Far-Right Unlikely to Secure Majority in Second Round of Elections

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
04/07/2024 20h30

In the latest poll conducted by Harris Interactive for Challenges magazine, it has been revealed that the far-right National Rally (RN) in France is falling short of the 289 seats required to control the National Assembly. This comes as French centrist and left-wing parties form an alliance to block a far-right majority in parliament.

The survey indicates that efforts by President Emmanuel Macron's centrists and the leftist bloc New Popular Front (NFP) to form a "Republican Front" might prove effective in preventing a far-right majority. According to the poll, the RN and its allies are projected to obtain between 190 and 220 seats, while the center-right Republicans (LR) are expected to win between 30 and 50 seats.

This outcome would likely eliminate the possibility of a far-right minority government supported by a portion of the LR parliamentary group. The poll takes into account the withdrawal of over 200 candidates from various parties, who came in third in their constituencies during the first round, aiming to support the strongest candidate against the RN in the second round.

Prior to these withdrawals, earlier polls had estimated that the RN was on track to win between 250 and 300 seats. However, the new poll brings hope for those who seek to block the far-right from gaining control of the National Assembly.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen remains confident despite the poll's projections. When asked if she was concerned about falling short of an absolute majority, Le Pen stated, "No, I am very confident. French people have a real desire for change."

The poll also sheds light on the projected seat distribution for other parties. The NFP is expected to secure between 159 and 183 seats, while Macron's Ensemble is anticipated to obtain 110 to 135 seats. Other parties are predicted to win between 17 and 31 seats.

In the event that the second-round vote confirms a hung parliament, France will enter a period of uncertainty as no single faction secures enough seats to form a government. Incumbent French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal expressed optimism about the cross-party initiative to block a far-right majority but dismissed the possibility of a cross-party government with Ensemble.

Sources from Macron's cabinet also revealed that the president ruled out forming a coalition with the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon. It is unknown if other coalition possibilities were discussed.

As Sunday's second-round voting approaches, the fate of the National Assembly hangs in the balance. The French people will have the final say as they head to the polls and determine the political landscape of their country for the coming years.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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