Poll Reveals Joe Biden Takes Lead Among Independents as Donald Trump's Support Declines
ICARO Media Group
According to a recent poll conducted by NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, Joe Biden has regained the lead among independent voters, dealing a blow to Donald Trump's campaign ahead of the presidential election in November.
The survey, conducted between June 10 and 12, showed that Biden now leads Trump among independents in a head-to-head race, with 50 percent of respondents supporting Biden compared to 48 percent for Trump. Two percent of respondents remained undecided. This is a significant increase from a previous poll conducted between May 21 and 23, which showed Biden trailing behind Trump with 42 percent support to Trump's 54 percent among independents.
The poll also revealed that Biden maintained a lead among independent voters in a multicandidate race. Against Trump's 34 percent, Biden secured 35 percent support. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent, garnered 20 percent support, while Cornel West, also an independent, received four percent. Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, secured two percent support.
Notably, the latest poll showed a decline in Trump's support among independent women, dropping from 50 percent in May to 42 percent in June. His support among independent men also decreased, falling from 56 percent to 51 percent. On the other hand, Biden saw an increase in support among independent women, rising from 47 percent in May to 56 percent in June. Among independent men, his support rose from 39 percent to 47 percent.
The survey findings also indicated that Trump's deficit in support among nonwhite voters has widened. Biden now holds an 18 percentage point lead with 58 percent support, compared to Trump's 40 percent. This is an increase from an 11 percentage point difference in May. However, Trump has doubled his lead among white voters, with a 12 percentage point advantage over Biden, holding 55 percent support to Biden's 43 percent.
In terms of overall results among national registered voters in a head-to-head race, Trump and Biden were tied at 49 percent each, with two percent remaining undecided. When considering only those who said they would definitely vote in November, Trump held a slight advantage with 50 percent support, compared to Biden's 49 percent.
In a multicandidate race, Trump maintained a slight lead with 42 percent support, while Biden received 41 percent. RFK Jr. secured 11 percent support, Cornel West received three percent, and Jill Stein secured one percent.
Lee M. Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, commented on the findings, noting the interesting developments under the hood. He highlighted Biden's improved standing among independent and nonwhite voters, as well as Trump's increased support among white voters since the New York hush money trial.
The poll was conducted on 1,311 adults, including 1,184 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
As independents play a critical role in determining the outcome of the election, both Biden and Trump will need to focus on winning over these voters in key battleground states. Small shifts in support among independents could have a significant impact on the election results. In 2020, Biden won Georgia and Arizona by narrow margins, highlighting the significance of capturing independent voters' support.
Newsweek has reached out to the Trump and Biden campaigns for comment outside of typical working hours.