In a devastating blow to the already ravaged region, a 10-month-old baby in Gaza has been diagnosed with polio, marking the first confirmed case in 25 years. Tragically, the baby has been left partially paralyzed, with the paralysis expected to be permanent. With no available treatments for polio, the situation in Gaza is dire.

The ongoing war in the region has caused a halt in vaccination campaigns, leaving the population vulnerable to preventable diseases. Polio, a highly contagious disease that spreads through contaminated water and waste, poses a significant threat to those living in makeshift camps surrounded by unsanitary conditions.

Amidst these challenging circumstances, a glimmer of hope emerges as an emergency UN health campaign initiates a series of nine-hour pauses on sequential days. These designated periods allow for the vaccination of children against polio. The first three-day pause was successfully concluded on Tuesday, with the next scheduled to continue until the end of the week.

Yet, concerns remain regarding the effectiveness and integrity of the agreed-upon ceasefires. Past incidents of hospitals, schools, aid trucks, and UN workers being targeted by Israeli forces heighten anxieties that the fighting may not entirely halt, jeopardizing the delivery of much-needed healthcare services.

Compounding the crisis, UN agencies, including the World Food Programme, have suspended sending staff into Gaza after an incident where Israeli forces opened fire on a marked World Food Programme truck, even after receiving clearances from Israeli authorities. The situation on the ground is riddled with uncertainty, making it crucial to ensure the ceasefire is upheld in practice, not just on paper.

The emergence of polio in Gaza highlights the growing difficulty in assessing the true toll of the ongoing war. The breakdown of civil registration systems in the region has created a significant challenge in accurately documenting the number of deaths. The health ministry is resorting to compiling figures from media reports, which may not provide a comprehensive and reliable picture of the situation.

Recognizing the urgency to estimate the true number of deaths, experts have looked to established methodologies like the Global Burden of Disease study. This study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, aims to develop reliable datasets to estimate deaths in conflict-ridden regions. The Lancet medical journal recently published estimates by respected scientists, suggesting that approximately 186,000 deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza by mid-June 2024, accounting for 7.9% of the population.

These estimates, aligned with similar forecasts made during winter, highlight the devastating consequences that could have unfolded without international intervention and temporary ceasefires. However, the pauses in fighting and humanitarian interventions, despite their inconsistent enforcement, have undoubtedly saved countless lives.

While the numbers can often overshadow the human stories behind them, it is crucial to remember that even amidst the despair, there is room for hope. The UN's persistent efforts to access Gaza, as demonstrated with the emergency polio vaccination campaign, have the power to make a difference in the lives of hundreds of thousands of families. The collaboration of scientists in documenting the realities of the conflict serves as a critical foundation for finding solutions to preserve human life and health.

As the fragile ceasefire continues, the international community must remain committed to supporting initiatives that mitigate the impact of the war on the innocent civilians caught in its midst. Only through unified efforts can there be progress towards a future where the people of Gaza can live free from the scourge of conflict and its devastating consequences.