In a significant development aimed at defusing tensions in the South China Sea, the Philippines and China have reportedly reached a "provisional arrangement" concerning the resupplying of a military outpost on a contested reef. The deal was reached after a series of consultations between diplomats from both countries, according to a statement by the Philippines' Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) on Sunday.

The resupply missions in question pertain to the Sierra Madre, a deteriorating warship stationed on Second Thomas Shoal. This reef has become one of the most volatile flashpoints in the region. The agreement, if confirmed and upheld, has the potential to end the violent clashes that have occurred over the past year. China's coast guard has been disrupting Philippine armed forces' vessels, used for supplying the small group of marines stationed on the reef.

Tensions escalated in June when Chinese coast guard forces rammed Philippine vessels, confiscated weapons, and even resorted to damaging Philippine boats and threatening Filipino sailors with axes. This clash raised concerns of a potential conflict between China and the United States, given their mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, which applies to Second Thomas Shoal.

The reef itself lies within the Philippine exclusive economic zone, granting it sole rights of use under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. However, China claims sovereignty over the reef and almost the entire South China Sea, though a 2016 arbitration ruling rejected this claim.

The DFA's statement highlights that both sides recognize the necessity to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage their differences through dialogue and consultation. It also ensures that the agreement will not undermine each other's positions in the disputed territory.

Despite this development, doubts persist regarding the effectiveness of the provisional arrangement in de-escalating tensions. A foreign diplomat in Manila, speaking on the condition of anonymity, stated that there is no indication of Beijing relinquishing its efforts to erode Manila's control over Second Thomas Shoal.

Previously, the Chinese government claimed to have made "gentleman's agreements" with Philippine officials for arrangements regarding the Sierra Madre. These agreements, however, were allegedly reneged upon by Manila, leading to continued disruptions of Philippine resupply missions by China using forceful tactics such as water cannons and other blocking maneuvers.

To facilitate the resupply missions, Chinese officials have reportedly offered, with certain conditions, to allow the provision of basic supplies like food and water to the Philippine outpost. The conditions include prior notification to Beijing, a commitment from Manila to not introduce stabilization materials to the deteriorating Sierra Madre, and allowing Chinese inspections of the resupply vessels.

The announcement of this provisional arrangement follows talks held between the two countries on July 2 under the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea. As the situation develops, continued diplomatic efforts will be necessary to address the longstanding disputes in the region.