### Trump and Allies Preemptively Cast Doubt on Election Results

As Americans gear up for a pivotal presidential election next Tuesday, there are increasing concerns that Republicans are poised to reject the outcome if Donald Trump fails to secure a victory. This skepticism is fueled by early lawsuits alleging fraud without basis, and polls from right-leaning groups that experts suggest may inflate Trump's popularity. According to analysts, these tactics could provide Trump with grounds to claim that fraudulent activities prevented his return to the White House.

Currently, most polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the vice-president and Democratic nominee. Both candidates appear to be evenly matched in seven crucial swing states. However, recent polls commissioned by Republican-connected entities predominantly show Trump in the lead, raising doubts about their objectivity. Trump himself has expressed confidence in these surveys, telling a rally audience in New Mexico, "We're leading big in the polls, all of the polls."

An internal memo circulated by Trump's chief pollster, Tony Fabrizio, supports this narrative, asserting that Trump is in a much stronger position nationally and in key battleground states compared to four years ago. Pro-Trump influencers have also bolstered these claims through social media posts predicting Harris's defeat based on anonymous sources within the White House.

A study by the New York Times has noted that Republican-aligned polling groups have released 37 surveys in the final campaign stretch, with all but seven showing leading figures for Trump. This contrasts starkly with long-established, non-partisan pollsters, whose data often shows Harris leading within error margins. For instance, a recent poll from the GOP-linked Trafalgar Group gave Trump a three-point lead in North Carolina, while a CNN/SRSS poll days later showed Harris ahead by one point.

Nate Silver, a polling expert, expressed reservations about Trump's apparent surge in a CNBC interview, remarking that anyone overly confident about the election's outcome should be viewed skeptically. Silver acknowledged some momentum toward Trump but stressed that overall uncertainty overshadowed these small gains.

Some Democrats and polling experts argue that the conservative-commissioned polls aim to curate a misleading narrative of Trump's unstoppable rise to challenge the outcome if Harris wins. According to Joshua Dyck from the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts, the intention behind these polls is not accuracy but to shape perceptions advantageously for Trump.

This strategy echoes a similar trend from the 2022 congressional elections when a wave of favorable polls for Republicans inaccurately forecasted a "red wave" that did not materialize. Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, emphasized the importance of recognizing these tactics. He argued that Trump requires data suggesting he was leading to claim fraud if he loses.

Besides influencing public perception through questionable polls, Trump's campaign has already resorted to legal means to challenge the election procedures. At a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump accused Democrats of "cheating," and his campaign has filed lawsuits against election officials in Bucks County over early mail-in ballots. Despite his claims, there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in Pennsylvania or any other state.

Anti-Trump Republicans share similar concerns with Democrats. Michael Steele, a former Republican National Committee chair, criticized the GOP-commissioned polls as manipulated to favor Trump. Stuart Stevens, a former adviser to Mitt Romney and a founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, described these polling tactics as part of a broader strategy to obstruct state certifications and claim the election was stolen.

Furthermore, Trump-leaning surveys have influenced polling averages, such as those published by Real Clear Politics, which currently project a Trump victory on election night. Trump's ally Elon Musk has amplified these projections, sharing a favorable electoral map with his 202 million followers on the X platform.

Adding to the perception of a Trump surge, online betting platforms have shown a substantial number of high-value wagers on his victory. These betting activities, including $28 million from accounts linked to a French national on the Polymarket platform, have been cited by Trump in his speeches as indicators of his potential success.