With closing arguments scheduled for early next week in the criminal trial of former President Donald Trump, the impending verdict could have significant ramifications on the highly anticipated 2024 election between Trump and President Joe Biden. Recent national polls indicate that while Trump currently holds a slight edge in national polling and public opinion surveys in crucial battleground states, a potential conviction on the state felony charges he faces could potentially alter the political landscape.

The trial, taking place in New York City, marks a historic moment as it is the first in the nation's history involving a former or current president. Trump faces nearly three-dozen state felony charges, including allegations of falsifying business records related to payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election to keep quiet about an alleged affair.

Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson and longtime Republican pollster Neil Newhouse both voiced their opinions on the potential impact of a guilty verdict. Anderson stated that he did not believe a guilty verdict would fundamentally change the race, as attitudes towards both Trump and Biden are already firmly entrenched. Newhouse went even further, asserting that a conviction is unlikely to make any difference at all.

Both pollsters noted the divided and unwavering opinions surrounding the two presidents. Trump has consistently denied any wrongdoing, claiming the trial to be a "SHAM" orchestrated by the White House and Department of Justice. He has been reprimanded by the judge in the case for violating a gag order and has faced fines and threats of jail time.

A Fox News national poll conducted earlier this month revealed that nearly half of registered voters considered Trump's actions regarding campaign finance laws to be illegal, while a quarter viewed them as unethical. Only 27% believed the former president had done nothing seriously wrong, but this number rose to 54% among Trump supporters. The poll also indicated a partisan divide, with Democrats mostly considering Trump's treatment fair and Republicans disagreeing.

Several recent national polls suggest that a guilty verdict may not dramatically impact the presidential race. In a Quinnipiac University survey, 62% of registered voters stated that a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote for president. Fifteen percent claimed it would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 21% said it would make them less likely to support him. An ABC News/Ipsos national poll revealed that 80% of Trump supporters would still back him if found guilty, with only 16% reconsidering their support.

While Anderson acknowledged that a guilty verdict could temporarily affect some of Trump's less dedicated supporters, he compared it to the "Access Hollywood" video scandal in 2016, which did not ultimately sway the election outcome. Newhouse emphasized that attitudes towards Trump and Biden are so deeply ingrained that a guilty verdict is unlikely to sway voters either way.

Nevertheless, Anderson noted that the trial itself has not been favorable for Trump and that a not guilty verdict would be the most advantageous outcome for him, enabling him to claim vindication. However, he still regarded it as a stretch to imagine such a verdict becoming a net positive for the former president.

In conclusion, as the Trump trial nears its end, it remains to be seen how the impending verdict will impact the 2024 election. While polls suggest that a conviction may not significantly alter the race, the trial itself has undeniably had an impact on Trump's political standing. The nation waits with bated breath for the conclusion of this historic case and its potential implications for the future of American politics.