### Global Economic Growth to Slow Amid Ongoing Trade Disputes, OECD Warns

Global economic prospects are looking grim, as unresolved trade conflicts threaten growth, according to a recent report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The OECD joins other organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, in forecasting a notable downturn in global economic growth.

In the United States, GDP growth is anticipated to slide from 2.8 percent in 2024 to 1.6 percent in 2025 and further down to 1.5 percent in 2026 if current trade tariffs remain unchanged. These tariffs, enacted by President Donald Trump as of mid-May, represent the highest U.S. tariffs since 1938. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of the economy, reflects the total value of goods and services produced within the country.

On the global stage, the OECD has revised its economic growth forecasts downward for 2025, from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent, with a minor reduction predicted for 2026. Álvaro Pereira, the OECD's chief economist, emphasized in the report that weakened economic prospects would be felt globally.

The report references the unpredictability of trade policy and suggests that future growth forecasts are highly uncertain. Additional trade barriers could exacerbate current economic challenges, while a de-escalation in trade disputes may alleviate some pressures.

While the report does not mention President Trump by name, many of its findings relate to the bilateral tariff rate increases that followed "Liberation Day" in April. This event marked the introduction of significant new tariffs by the Trump administration. Despite subsequent delays, negotiations, and legal challenges—highlighted by the federal Court of International Trade in New York blocking most of these tariffs on May 28—the impact of these tariffs remains far-reaching.

As of mid-May, the OECD calculated that the imposed tariffs represented a 15.4 percent tax on imports, a stark increase from approximately 2 percent in 2024. The report hints at potential measures to mitigate the economic slowdown, such as rolling back increased trade barriers, easing regulatory burdens, and resolving conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. These steps could boost confidence and incentivize investment, even though they may not immediately reduce policy uncertainty.

In conclusion, the OECD's analysis underscores the delicate state of global economic health, cautioning that without resolution to ongoing trade disputes, the world economy is poised for a significant slowdown.