The shift follows recent polling data that shows the Democratic nominee, state Attorney General Josh Stein, enjoying notable leads over his Republican counterpart, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

With the race being closely watched amidst the competitive backdrop of the presidential election, Sabato's Crystal Ball moved its rating from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic." This recalibration takes into account Stein's substantial lead in recent polls as well as his campaign's significant fundraising advantage.

A key factor in the rating shift is Robinson's controversial remarks and staunchly conservative positions on various issues. Known for personifying the Maga wing of the GOP, he has made provocative comments about abortion and LGBTQ individuals, using terms such as "murder," "genocide," and referring to homosexuality and "transgenderism" as "filth."

In a surprising recent development, Robinson's campaign released an ad where he revealed that he and his wife had an abortion 30 years ago. Although this seemingly softened his stance on abortion, he now supports the state's 12-week ban with "common-sense exceptions" for cases of rape, incest, and protecting the life of the mother.

Stein, on the other hand, has largely refrained from directly addressing Robinson's provocative statements but has effectively criticized his conservative position on abortion. Additionally, the Democratic nominee has garnered substantial ad support, with funding surpassing that of Robinson's campaign by more than a 2-to-1 margin.

Multiple polls conducted in recent weeks have consistently shown Stein widening his lead, with The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's polling average placing him ahead by 10 points. However, Sabato's Crystal Ball cautions that double-digit wins in North Carolina are rare and suggests that Stein's lead may not be as substantial as polling suggests. An example of this is the 2020 election, where outgoing Governor Roy Cooper led by 11 points in polling but won by a margin of only 4.5 points.

While Sabato's Crystal Ball does not anticipate a victory for Stein by a margin similar to Cooper's in 2020, they do consider him a "modest favorite" in the race. This rating shift coincides with the Cook Political Report also moving its rating of the race in favor of the Democrats.

As the North Carolina gubernatorial race unfolds, the Democratic nominee, Josh Stein, seeks to maintain his lead against his Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. With both national attention and the battleground status of the state at play, the outcome of this critical race remains highly anticipated.