According to a recent Leger poll exclusively shared with The Post, a significant portion of Americans expects former President Donald Trump to outperform President Biden in the upcoming first presidential debate. The survey found that 42% of respondents believed that the 45th president would come out on top, while just 29% thought that the incumbent would win the forum. The remaining 29% were unsure of the outcome.

The poll highlighted that self-declared Republicans had more confidence in their candidate, with 83% of that group believing Trump would win. In contrast, only 60% of proclaimed Democratic voters bet on Biden's victory. The presumptive major-party nominees are scheduled to face off at CNN's Atlanta headquarters on Thursday night.

While the poll found that exactly 50% of Americans plan to watch the debate, a mere 10% said that the showdown could potentially change their voting choice on November 5. Interestingly, a considerable 75% of respondents mentioned that the debate would have no impact on their voting decision, with an additional 15% expressing uncertainty.

In terms of voter preferences, the survey revealed that Biden slightly edged out Trump, with 45% to 43% among likely voters if the election were held today. The remaining 12% expressed their intention to vote for "someone else." It is noteworthy that Biden's lead comes despite his approval rating standing at just 34%, with nearly one in five voters who supported him four years ago now disapproving of his performance as president.

The poll also shed light on Americans' expectations regarding the election outcome. Slightly more participants, 39%, believed that Trump would win the election, while 32% were confident in Biden's victory. In a five-way matchup that included third-party candidates, the survey showed Biden and Trump in a dead heat at 38% each among likely voters. Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and the Green Party's Jill Stein received 7%, 2%, and 2% support, respectively, while 13% remained undecided.

An intriguing factor potentially impacting the election results is Trump's upcoming sentencing in his Manhattan "hush money" case on July 11. If the former president gets put behind bars, the Leger poll suggests that Biden's lead in the popular vote could grow to 5 percentage points.

The survey was conducted online from June 22-24, with a sample size of 1,003 US adults. It carries a margin of error of 3.01%, providing valuable insights into the expectations and preferences of American voters.