### Trump and Harris Neck-and-Neck in Crucial Swing States

The latest poll from Emerson College/The Hill reveals a razor-thin contest between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris as they battle for dominance in key swing states. The survey indicates Harris with a lead in Michigan, while Trump is edging ahead in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. In closely-watched Nevada and Wisconsin, the competitors are statistically tied, with all polling data within the margin of error.

Amidst a flurry of national polls that predict an incredibly tight race, Harris has made unexpected gains in Iowa, leading Trump in a state where his victory was previously considered a foregone conclusion. Both candidates are making their final campaign pushes—Trump holding rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before concluding in Michigan, and Harris rallying in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, culminating in a concert in Allentown.

According to Emerson College Polling/The Hill, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 48% in Michigan, based on a survey of 790 people with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. The race in Nevada and Wisconsin is at a deadlock, with polls of 840 and 800 people showing equal support at 48% and 49% respectively, within margins of error of 3.3% and 3.4%.

Trump has a slight upper hand in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, leading 50% to 49% in Georgia, 49% to 48% in North Carolina, and 49% to 48% in Pennsylvania. These findings are from polls of 800, 860, and 1,000 people, each within margins of error ranging from 3% to 3.4%. In Arizona, Trump leads Harris 50% to 48% according to a survey of 900 voters, which has a margin of error of 3.2%.

The polls, conducted from Wednesday to Saturday, suggest a race that could go either way. Conversely, fresh surveys from The New York Times and Siena College reveal Harris ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia, while showing a tie in Pennsylvania and Michigan. In Arizona, Trump leads, though all results remain within the margin of error.

These polls were conducted with likely voters from October 24 to November 2, surveying 7,879 participants across the battleground states with a uniform margin of error of ±3.5%. According to the Pew Research Center, when a candidate's lead is within the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie." Pew also notes that many pollsters have adjusted their methodologies following the considerable underestimation of Trump's performance in the 2016 and 2020 elections.