### Uncertainty Looms as Americans Await Election Results

As Americans gear up for another contentious election, the nation is riddled with questions, not only about who will clinch the presidency but also when the final result will be known. In a significant departure from previous norms, the 2020 election saw Joe Biden declared the winner only by Saturday, turning "Election Night" into "Election Week." This year, it's anyone's guess whether a winner will be declared swiftly or if the process will extend for several days.

The NBC News Decision Desk faces uncertainty as election night approaches. Despite thorough analysis of polls, early votes, and other election-related data, predicting the timeline for declaring a winner remains elusive. The speed at which states count votes and the closeness of the margins will largely determine whether a projection can be made promptly. It’s increasingly clear that the days of declaring a winner on election night itself may be over.

A timely projection could occur if key battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania, exhibit a clear margin between candidates. States like Georgia and Arizona demonstrated in 2020 that extremely close races necessitate a complete vote count before any projection, which can take several days. Specifically, the razor-thin margins in Georgia and Arizona (with Joe Biden's winning margins being 11,779 and 10,457 votes, respectively) underscore the time required to ensure an accurate count.

The "blue wall" states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—continue to be crucial in the path to the White House. In 2020, Pennsylvania was pivotal, but it took four days post-Election Day for NBC News Decision Desk to declare a winner. However, this year, with improvements in voting infrastructure, nearly all votes in Pennsylvania (98%-99%) may be counted by Wednesday morning, potentially speeding up the process. Efficient new voting machines and additional personnel in key counties such as Allegheny and Philadelphia, coupled with the absence of a global pandemic, could make a significant difference.

Wisconsin and Michigan could also see the bulk of their votes counted by Wednesday if historical patterns hold. Wisconsin is expected to have over 99% of votes counted by Wednesday morning, while Michigan should have more than 95%, aided by new processes like the pre-processing of absentee ballots. Although Michigan’s new early in-person voting could add some complexity, both states generally count their votes swiftly, making a Wednesday projection possible unless the races are exceedingly close.

Looking beyond the "blue wall," swing states like Georgia and North Carolina are among the most efficient at processing and counting votes, often having 99% of their votes tallied by midnight. Still, any chance of an election night projection hinges on whether the candidate margins are wide enough. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District also plays a pivotal role, with approximately 90% of its vote counted by Wednesday morning.

In contrast, battleground states Arizona and Nevada are unlikely to deliver quick results. In 2020, Arizona’s winner wasn’t projected until nine days after Election Day, and Nevada’s significant early voting means nearly a quarter of its votes are often uncounted by Wednesday morning. Given their historical tight margins, these states present low chances of an early projection.

In conclusion, while some states may produce results quickly, others will require several days, adding a layer of extended uncertainty to an already high-stakes election.