**California's Gubernatorial Race: Navigating the Trump Factor Amid Shifts in Voter Sentiments**

With California's gubernatorial race heating up, candidates are grappling with the complicated legacy of former President Donald Trump. During his 2017 gubernatorial campaign, Gavin Newsom famously positioned himself as a fierce adversary of Trump, rallying California liberals and securing victory in 2018. Now, with the upcoming 2026 election, the question looms: will Newsom's successor take a similar stance?

A crowded Democratic field is emerging, each candidate deliberating their position on Trump. Attorney General Rob Bonta, a potential candidate, has already pledged to defend Californians' rights against any federal overreach. Standing in front of the Golden Gate Bridge, Bonta assured, "If Trump attacks your rights: I'll be there. If Trump comes after your freedoms: I'll be there. If Trump jeopardizes your safety and well-being: I'll be there."

State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, who has announced his candidacy, expressed staunch opposition to any rollback of LGBTQ+ student protections or the dismantling of the U.S. Department of Education by the Trump administration. Similarly, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis has vowed California will defend personal freedoms and support for immigrants, emphasizing the state's commitment despite the political shifts.

These pledges come as the political landscape in California shows signs of shifting. Preliminary election results indicate several counties won by President Biden in 2020 have leaned toward Trump this time around. Areas such as San Bernardino, Butte, and parts of the San Joaquin Valley, including Merced, Fresno, and Stanislaus counties, have shown a rightward trend.

Additionally, voters have decisively shifted against the criminal justice reform movement, unseating District Attorneys George Gascón and Pamela Price and approving a tough-on-crime initiative. This evolving voter sentiment prompts questions about the effectiveness of anti-Trump rhetoric in upcoming campaigns. UC Berkeley political scientist Sarah Anzia suggests that a reevaluation may be necessary to understand Trump's growing popularity in California.

Former state controller Betty Yee, who entered the gubernatorial race in March, has acknowledged the state's shift toward Trump in her fundraising efforts. She notes that more young people and minority voters, including Black and Latino communities, have shown support for Trump like never before.

Given that Trump's popularity has increased since 2020, but remains low overall among Californians, the upcoming elections are poised to be particularly telling. Historical trends show that the party not holding the White House often gains in subsequent elections, potentially benefiting anti-Trump campaigns in 2026.

Former state senate leader Toni Atkins, one of several candidates, remarked that while focusing on Trump may feel like a distraction, it remains an integral part of California's political identity. Atkins, who led significant legislative efforts such as Proposition 1, which enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution, believes Trump's re-election profoundly impacts the gubernatorial race.

California famously sued the federal government over 100 times during Trump's first term, challenging federal authority on a range of issues. As Trump continues to deride California's leaders and policies, the state must navigate its ongoing need for federal support in areas like healthcare and disaster relief.

A pre-election poll by UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies found that many voters are still undecided on the 2026 candidates. U.S. Rep. Katie Porter and a few other Republicans are gaining interest but have not yet formally entered the race.

The political terrain for the 2026 race remains complex. Reflecting on the 2018 gubernatorial election may provide insights: Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa ran a centrist campaign but lost to Newsom's liberal agenda.

As the race progresses, candidates will need to balance Trump's legacy with California's evolving political landscape, making for an unpredictable and dynamic electoral season.