### Trump's Oil Boom Promise Faces Market Realities: Experts Weigh In

President-elect Donald Trump's ambitious pledge to significantly boost US oil production and consequently lower gas prices is hitting a market wall: the global surplus of fossil fuels. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods highlighted this challenge, explaining to Semafor on November 12 that while US oil production is already at a high level, the market is flooded. "I don't think today that production in the US is constrained," Woods said. "I don't know that there's an opportunity to unleash a lot of production in the near term."

Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump emphasized his plans to cut energy costs by ramping up US oil extraction. "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," Trump declared in October, promising to slash energy prices in half within a year. He also aimed to bring gas prices below $2 per gallon as he mentioned in September. However, energy analysts suggest that major oil companies are currently more invested in returning profits to shareholders rather than boosting production, especially given reduced oil demand from China amidst its economic slowdown.

This scenario underscores the limited influence a US president has over global oil and gas prices. Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin, expressed to Business Insider, "It's a global market. There's very little any president can do to change the direction of oil or gasoline prices." Cahill anticipates a gradual increase in US oil production. The nation is already producing record amounts, with 12.9 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2023, significantly up from about 11 million barrels per day in 2020 when Trump left office. The US also became the largest exporter of natural gas last year, and projections suggest oil production could reach 13.5 million barrels per day by 2025, setting another record.

Opportunities for industry expansion still exist. Woods mentioned to CNBC that untapped areas in the Gulf of Mexico, currently restricted by federal leasing, could provide additional sources of oil in the long term. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, indicated Trump might enhance US oil production by reducing regulations to open more drilling locations and possibly collaborating with OPEC. Nonetheless, maintaining production while managing prices is a "delicate balance." De Haan warned that significant drops in oil prices could naturally lead to decreased US oil production, as companies must remain accountable to their shareholders.

Despite increased oil production, President Joe Biden has imposed stricter environmental regulations, targeting reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, oil and gas infrastructure, and gas-powered vehicles to address the climate crisis. In a separate interview with The Wall Street Journal, Woods advised against the US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, as Trump did during his first term and has vowed to do again. Almost 200 countries committed last year at the UN climate summit to transition away from fossil fuels within the decade and triple renewable energy production by 2030. Woods expressed support for Biden's methane emissions restrictions on the oil and gas sector, although climate scientists remain skeptical about the industry's emission reduction goals being sufficient to prevent severe global warming.