As NATO leaders gather in Washington this week, there is mounting concern that former president Donald Trump could once again occupy the White House, prompting discussions on how to secure support for Ukraine and the alliance itself. While Trump himself is not present at the table, his influence looms large as officials plan for the possibility of another skeptical leader in the highest office.

One of the key strategies implemented by alliance policymakers is the transfer of control over major elements of military aid to Ukraine from U.S. command to the NATO umbrella. This move aims to shield the aid from the unpredictable impulses Trump had displayed towards the alliance during his previous tenure. Additionally, a new NATO secretary general has been appointed, known for his agility in handling Trump's unpredictable stance towards NATO.

To ensure consistent military assistance for Kyiv unhindered by political fluctuations, NATO is signing decade-long defense pledges with Ukraine. This commitment seeks to mitigate the effects of policy changes on military aid. Furthermore, NATO member countries are increasing their defense spending, which had been a significant point of contention for Trump during his time in office.

Although the topic of Trump is not explicitly raised during discussions at the summit, his shadow of uncertainty permeates the discussions. European leaders quietly speculate whether they are witnessing their final encounter with a U.S. leader committed to a transatlantic agenda, as had been a constant in U.S. foreign policy since World War II, until Trump's presidency.

While the notion of Trump formally withdrawing the United States from NATO is dismissed by few European policymakers, there are concerns that he would adopt a more transactional approach to the alliance. Trump's previous statements, indicating that he would evaluate NATO members' defense spending before deciding whether to aid them in case of attacks, are taken seriously. This has led to a profound focus on how to navigate a potential Trump presidency and the related uncertainty surrounding President Joe Biden's reelection efforts.

Although many conversations surrounding Trump occur behind closed doors, some leaders have taken the opportunity to engage in discreet conversations with potential Trump administration foreign policy officials during their time in Washington. Foreign officials, including Ukrainian leaders who have the most at stake, have been hedging their bets in case Trump were to return to office.

In light of these concerns, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent speech at the Reagan Institute reflects the country's efforts to secure its own survival amidst the U.S. political landscape. Zelensky urged Biden to allow Ukraine to use U.S. long-range weaponry to strike Russian military bases promptly, rather than waiting for potential events in the future.

The discussions among NATO policymakers have been ongoing for months as they navigate the possibility of Trump's resurgence. Initially, the Biden administration was hesitant to involve NATO directly in providing military aid to Ukraine following Russia's invasion earlier this year. However, recent gains by Russian forces and growing European concerns have prompted a reconsideration of this stance. As a result, a new NATO command is being established to assume coordination roles previously handled by the Pentagon, while maintaining the U.S. military's crucial role within the alliance.

While efforts are underway to safeguard the alliance from the potential challenges posed by Trump, policymakers acknowledge that complete "Trump-proofing" is not possible. It is noted that Trump is not the only leader who has expressed skepticism towards NATO policy regarding Ukraine and Russia, citing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's visits to Moscow and Beijing and support for a Russia-friendly approach within the alliance.

However, some leaders view a Trump presidency as an opportunity for NATO, especially if it prompts European countries to increase their defense spending. Pro-NATO policymakers argue that despite tough rhetoric and language from Trump, his policies towards Europe were not damaging to NATO.

As discussions continue, NATO leaders anticipate the arrival of the incoming secretary general, Mark Rutte, who is credited for his tactful management of interactions with Trump during his long tenure as Dutch prime minister. Leaders hope that under Rutte's leadership, the alliance can navigate potential diverging policy visions and uphold the transatlantic relationship that he is deeply committed to preserving.

In conclusion, NATO leaders are strategizing and adapting their approach in response to the possibility of Trump's return to the White House. Efforts include transferring control of military aid to Ukraine to the NATO umbrella, appointing a new secretary general, signing long-term defense pledges, and increasing defense spending. While concerns and discussions surround the topic of Trump, NATO policymakers are focused on safeguarding the alliance's interests and transatlantic relationship amidst uncertainties about the future.